2022 BMW Championship Betting Preview

The FedEx Cup Playoffs for the PGA Tour continue this week as the top 70 in the standings will compete in the BMW Championship, hosted by the Wilmington Country Club. Lanto Griffin, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Smith withdrew, so the actual number of golfers playing will be 67. The big story coming into the week is Will Zalatoris finally securing his first victory on the PGA Tour after a dramatic finish at last week’s St. Jude Championship. 

This week’s no-cut event is featuring a new course for the PGA Tour and with that comes with many unknowns. We will do our best to see what we can take away from course descriptions, architects and facts sheets to pieces together the course fit puzzle as best we can. With new courses I often stick mostly to baseline numbers with minor adjustments and then perhaps we can tweak after some information is processed from the first round. 

Wilmington Country Club (South)

• Par 70 – 7,534 yards
• Greens – Bentgrass
• Architect – Robert Trent Jones, with renovations by Andrew Green in 2020 after a massive tornado ripped apart a large portion of the course. 

Course Takeaways

• The course is set up on the PGA scorecard to play 256 yards longer than the average par 71 course on Tour.
• Only six holes averages less than average for that type of hole (par 3/4/5).
• The three par 5s are 59, 72, and 87 yards longer than the average par 5.
• No. 3 par 5 has a carry over water right to the greens edge, making it a layup for anybody with a magnificent drive.
• No. 14 par 5 is an extreme dogleg right, almost 90-degree turn – hard to say from overhead but trees near tee box could prevent a complete corner cut but potentially possible with a good fade
• Course appears fairly straight forward, bunkers around most greens and potential landing zones for drives – I’m curious to see how many can be driven over by the field but still hold the fairway.

BMW Championship Outrights

• Xander Schauffele 20/1 (BetMGM)
• Cameron Young 30/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Hideki Matsuyama 65/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The course is an unknown, but what I do know is when you’re as good as Schauffele it shouldn’t matter too much. The tougher it plays the more beneficial it will be for him because he has a superb all-around skill set. He’s well above average OTT with his distance and accuracy and he’s one of the best in the world with his irons through putting. We’ve seen him play well at the toughest courses and with the length of Wilmington and the unknowns of how else it could play, backing a golfer who can do it all is a good decision. I think the number is solid and could be even better value if the rough is thick and the greens are firm. He was the hottest golfer on the planet just a month ago and showed he’s more than capable of winning and beating these fields (in case people had thought otherwise). 

I’ve bet Cam Young at what feels like every course where I believe distance and superior OTT play will be a large advantage so I would be a fool to not do so this week. His baseline alone deserves a wager at 30/1 so I’m hoping the course also plays how I anticipate it will. We know all about his elite driving and his approach play continues to be steady, despite being a weak point of his coming into his rookie season. He hasn’t putted as consistently over the last month and half but he is still mixing in big weeks on the greens and his short game is more than good enough to help him earn a victory. Last week wasn’t his best effort but it was due to his short game which comes and goes and his ball striking continued to be superb, gaining just over 2.7 strokes each round (and giving back about 1.3 with the short game). That is the type of ball striking he will need once again at Wilmington CC. 

Lastly, I’m going to take a shot on Hideki Matsuyama at a large number. Sure, there is some concern as he continues to deal with a linger neck issues that made him withdraw prior to last week’s event, and a few others earlier this season. If he’s healthy enough to play he’s the type of golfer I think could greatly excel at a long, tough course that I’m guessing Wilmington CC to be. I make his number much closer to 40, so getting 65 feels like an overreaction to me. Yes, the field is quite deep but Hideki is still among the best tee to green and puts himself on leaderboards fairly often when the courses are tough. 

For all of my other picks this week outside of the outright market, check out the Bet Tracker.