NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Frank’s Model Play of the Day. We’ll break down the best bet or two on the baseball slate from the FTN MLB Model, totally free.
This is your fair warning. This will be a stat-heavy approach to betting each day.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Yankees -135, Red Sox +115, Total 9, Caesars Sportsbook
SP: Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Michael Wacha (R)
Model Prediction: Yankees 4.99 runs – Red Sox 4.91 runs (9.90 total runs expected)
The best rivalry in sports continues tonight on Sunday Night Baseball with a clear, beautiful night in Boston. The Yankees will send Jameson Taillon to the hill to face off against Michael Wacha. Wacha is making his return from an IL-stint that has sidelined him since June 28.
Wacha has still started 13 games for the Red Sox this season, posting a 2.69 ERA, 4.78 xERA, and 3.97 FIP. The smaller sample can certainly lend itself to this contradiction in metrics, but we should not expect Wacha to pitch under a three ERA going forward. He has, though, made some strides from his two previous seasons that consisted of 6.62 and 5.05 ERAs.
Wacha has held off offenses with a bit of luck. His .240 BABIP and 81% left-on-base rates are not sustainable. Our model projects Wacha to pitch to an ERA in the 4.50s range going forward. That mark, combined with his lack of strikeouts this season, makes pitching to the Yankees in ideal hitting conditions tonight a tough task.
The Yankees are tied for the highest offensive wRC+ mark on the season. They’ve hit 19 more home runs than any other team and walk in more than 10% of their plate appearances while also ranking fourth in stolen bases. Their versatility on offense has proven to only be matched by the Dodgers this season.
Taillon will take on the recently struggling Boston offense. The Red Sox have just an 85 wRC+ as a team over the last 30 days. However, there’s only two hitters expected in the Red Sox lineup tonight that project to be below-average going forward (Jarren Duran and Kevin Plawecki). The additions of Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer were downplayed quite a bit at the deadline, but they did improve the offense for the near future.
Though Taillon’s season has been up to his usual consistency throughout his career, his more recent starts are setting off alarm bells. Jameson hasn’t pitched a full season since 2018 with Pittsburgh. Injuries, along with a cancer diagnosis, have set his career arc back quite a bit. Over his last four starts, Taillon has pitched to a 4.43 ERA and 5.28 FIP in a stretch that included four homers and 12 walks.
While the first two games of this series only yielded 10 total runs, we should not be discouraged given the small sample. For example, there were 31 hits spread across the prior games with both teams combining to go 8-for-34 with runners in scoring position. If we continue to play out the hits against two hittable pitchers, we should get up toward the 10-run mark tonight.
Play: OVER 9 -120
