Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After Ja’Marr Chase’s inability to catch a football without a white stripe was monumentally overblown last preseason, the rookie receiver proved not only that he could catch the ball, but that he is already one of the best wideouts in the NFL.
His reunion with Joe Burrow went better in year one than almost anyone predicted, and that sets him up with some high receiving prop totals for year two. Despite posting a ridiculous 81-1,455-13 receiving line last season, Chase’s 2022 receiving yards and touchdown props on FanDuel Sportsbook come in at 1,225.5 and 10.5, respectively.
So, will the young phenom stay healthy and build on his strong rookie campaign? Or will he take a step back from his superstar production?
Ja’Marr Chase Prop Bets for 2022
(All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
How Many Receiving Yards will Ja’Marr Chase Have in 2022?
Over 1225.5 (-112)
Unders are often regarded as the “smart bet” for season-long props because of injury risk and the possibility of unforeseen or unpredictable outcomes. When I’m looking at season-long props, I tend to lean toward the under if I’m on the fence at all, but I’m not on the fence here with Chase.
The second-year stud is so dynamic and versatile that he can surpass 1,225 receiving yards even if he doesn’t play a full season. He can beat opposing defenses in a multitude of ways and his chemistry with his star quarterback is almost unmatched.
First, Chase gets plenty of downfield opportunities to rack up big yardage. In 2021, 19% of his total targets came via the deep ball (second in the league), he averaged 1.5 deep targets per game (third in the league) and he earned a 95.3 receiving grade from PFF on deep targets (fifth in the league).
Second, when he’s not piling up air yards, he’s still a threat to make a huge play. According to FTNData, Chase ranked eighth in the NFL in forced missed tackles per reception and fourth in explosive play rate. Whether he’s running under the ball downfield or has it delivered to him close to the line of scrimmage, he’s a big play waiting to happen.
It helps, too, that the Bengals made a strong effort to upgrade their offensive line this offseason. More time in the pocket for Burrow means more time to get open down field for Chase. I expect him to breeze by this number, even if he misses a game or two.
How Many Touchdown Receptions Will Ja’Marr Chase Have in 2022?
Over 10.5 TD Receptions (-108)
As a sophomore at LSU, Ja’Marr Chase hauled in a whopping 20 touchdowns with Joe Burrow throwing him the ball. Then, as an NFL rookie, he caught 13 touchdowns from his buddy Burrow. Maybe they’re just really good together. Now, his 2022 receiving touchdown prop is set at 10.5 and the over feels undeniable.
Again, injuries play a factor in season-long props, but this is an attainable number for Chase even if he doesn’t play a full 17 games. His explosiveness makes him a scoring threat from outside of the red zone, and it helps that Joe Burrow looks his way quite often inside the red zone, too.
According to FTNFantasy’s Red Zone Report, Ja’Marr Chase earned a target on 42% of his quarterback’s red zone passes, good for third in the NFL. Burrow’s 33 red zone throws ranked just 15th in the NFL, in part because of long touchdowns from Chase, but also because of the Bengals’ pace.
Cincinnati ran the just the 26th-most plays in 2021. Check out the offenses that ran fewer:
- Denver Broncos
- New York Jets
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Houston Texans
- Atlanta Falcons
- Seattle Seahawks
All of these offenses had shaky (at best) quarterback play and were much worse than Cincinnati as a whole. The point is that good offenses usually run more plays than the Bengals did last season, and their offense even improved on paper. If the pace or the play count picks up a bit, it should counteract any touchdown regression that could come Chase’s way after a stellar first season.
How to Bet Ja’Marr Chase Props
If you are looking to bet on props like receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, FTNBets has all the tools to get you started. Sign up for a sportsbook account using our affiliate link and take a deep dive into all the different NFL futures markets that legal books offer.
Ja’Marr Chase’s 2022 receiving yards prop is set at 1225.5 yards and the over has -112 odds. In this example, you would need to bet $112 that Chase will have more than 1225.5 receiving yards in order to make a $100 profit.
Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to view parlay payouts based on each leg’s odds and the amount of money wagered.
