The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/23)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Rangers (-120), Orioles (+102)
Total: 9.0 runs
Glenn Otto (R) vs. Zac Lowther (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have been striking out a lot (25.5%) but boast a solid .323 wOBA.
• The Rangers offense is not very dynamic — their .134 ISO and .303 wOBA is among the league’s worst.
• Texas boasts a league-worst 6.5% walk rate over this time frame.

Best bets: In hitter friendly Camden, despite these two struggling offenses, I love the OVER.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Pirates (+235), Phillies (-290)
Total: 8.0 runs
Connor Overton (R) vs. Aaron Nola (R)

Three things to know

• The Pirates have a solid 10.4% walk rate, but their .309 wOBA is gross.
• The Phillies have been far better at the plate, recording a .328 wOBA and .182 ISO.
• Don’t plan on a lot of strikeouts here — both have logged under a 21% rate over the l30 days.

Best bets: Not a heavy lean either way, but I think a Phillies ML or a F3/F5 bet makes for a great play.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Jays (-134), Twins (+114)
Total: 9.0 runs
Steven Matz (L) vs. Michael Pineda (R)

Three things to know

• The Twins need to snap awake at the plate — their .306 wOBA and 24.2% strikeout rate is ugly.
• The Jays are still crushing the baseball, logging a .360 wOBA in the same time frame.
• Will the good or bad Steven Matz show up?

Best bets: It feels like the Jays should have some more juice — a F3/F5 bet makes too much sense.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Astros (-168), Angels (+142)
Total: 8.5 runs
Lance McCullers Jr. (R) vs. Alex Cobb (R)

Three things to know

• The Angels have been horrendous at the plate, logging a .144 ISO and .290 wOBA.
• Houston is stroking the ball at the plate, logging a .351 wOBA and 18.1% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
• Lance McCullers Jr. has been awesome lately, but has had some command and control issues — can he keep those in check?

Best bets: With a bad Angels offense and a very strong arm for the ‘Stros, plan on them in a F3/F5 bet.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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