The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/6)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Rays (-152), Orioles (+128)
Total: 9.5 runs
Ryan Yarbrough (L) vs. John Means (L)

Three things to know

• The Rays have been better at the plate – but their 25.7% whiff rate is still elevated.
• Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. They rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
• Since returning from injury, John Means has struggled – but his last start was perhaps the best as we earned the win over six frames.

Best bets: Finally leaving Tampa, it may still be a tough game as the Rays don’t hit lefties well. Take the UNDER.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Mets (-112), Phillies (-104)
Total: 9.5 runs
Marcus Stroman (R) vs. Kyle Gibson (R)

Three things to know

• These two teams are tough to strike out – over the last week, they are both in the bottom five in strikeout rate.
• The Mets have been in a bad spot at the plate – they are only at a .278 mark over the last seven days.
• Meanwhile, despite losing Andrew McCutchen, the Phillies are on fire, recording a .342 wOBA.

Best bets: The Mets are in a bit of a free fall, and Gibson has been excellent – I like a Phillies F3/F5 bet.

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Mariners (+140), Yankees (-166)
Total: 10.0 runs
Marco Gonzales (L) vs. Wandy Peralta (L)

Three things to know

• Seattle has massively cut down on whiff rate – the Mariners have logged a 20.4% mark in the last week.
• Can the new acquisitions for the pinstripes fix things? Let’s hope so, as they have been a middling offense all year, and they rank 18th (.304) in wOBA in the last week.
• For some fun, think about some home run props – three dingers were hit in this contest last night.

Best bets: The OVER. Both teams have been improving a ton at the plate and in the band box of Yankees Stadium, this could be high scoring.

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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Red Sox (+124), Blue Jays (-146)
Total: 9.0 runs
Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Alek Manoah (R)

Three things to know

• There were more fireworks Thursday, as Bo Bichette smacked another homer. Can the Jays keep it up?
• The Jays are an offense that’s a bit scary – they are torrid at the dish with a .207 ISO mark.
• The Red Sox stink at the plate – in the last week, they have a 25.0% strikeout rate and .304 wOBA.

Best bets: It is very hard betting against the Blue Jays right now – eye them up in a F3/F5 bet.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Pirates (+166), Reds (-198)
Total: 9.0 runs
JT Brubaker (R) vs. Wade Miley (L)

Three things to know

• Pittsburgh has gone backward at the plate, logging a .290 wOBA in the last seven days.
• In the last week, the Reds are on fire at the plate. They lead the league with a .237 ISO and .377 wOBA.
• Wade Miley has been incredible this season – he’s logged a 2.92 ERA thanks to a 50.4% ground-ball rate.

Best bets: A same-game parlay, but on the Reds. I am not comfortable betting against them right now.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Tigers (+136), Guardians (-162)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Manning (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)

Three things to know

• The Tigers are a volatile offense – they lead the league with a 27.0% strikeout rate in the last week and are down to a .305 wOBA.
• The Indians aren’t great either – with a 25.5% strikeout rate and .304 wOBA.
• Matt Manning is putting up numbers we have never seen before, recording an 11.6% strikeout rate this season.

Best bets: I like some strikeout props here along with a peek at the UNDER with these struggling offensive attacks.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Nationals (+158), Braves (-188)
Total: 9.0 runs
Erick Fedde (R) vs. Kyle Muller (L)

Three things to know

• Washington may have traded away Trea Turner, but the Nationals are fourth in team wOBA in the last seven days (.359!). Can they survive with Juan Soto out?
• The Braves have been crushing at the plate – they’ve got a .346 wOBA and sub-20% strikeout rate.
• The Braves may have pulled another rabbit out of their hat – Kyle Muller boasts a 27.2% strikeout rate on the year.

Best bets: I know Washington has been hot, but with Soto likely out again, take the Braves in a F3/F5 here.

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San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Giants (+130), Brewers (-154)
Total: 8.0 runs
Logan Webb (R) vs. Corbin Burnes (R)

Three things to know

• The Giants are on again at the plate – they’ve logged a .354 wOBA in the last seven days.
• That said, they will have their hands full with Corbin Burnes. Over 106 innings pitched, his 36.0% strikeout rate has been a monster.
• The Brew Crew has cut down on the whiffs (17.5%), but their .294 wOBA is pretty pukey.

Best bets: I love strikeouts here, as both teams whiff a ton. Peep those and the home Brewers.

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Twins (+184), Astros (-220)
Total: 9.0 runs
Bailey Ober (R) vs. Zack Greinke (R)

Three things to know

• Ober is an interesting case – he is providing plenty of strikeouts (25.7%), but he also needs to generate more groundballs (32.3%), leaving him prone to the big fly.
• Houston just keeps crushing, and their .226 ISO over the last week is among the league’s elite.
• Similarly, Minnesota has remained strong at the plate, recording a .326 wOBA over the last seven days.

Best bets: This feels like an OVER. Neither pitcher is throwing well, and the offenses have been solid.

Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Royals (+136), Cardinals (-162)
Total: 9.0 runs
Mike Minor (L) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)

Three things to know

• The only thing going for the Cardinals is Waino – he has a sub-3.00 ERA for his career at Busch Stadium.
• Both teams stink at the plate, led by the Royals – they own a disgusting .256 wOBA at the plate in the last seven days.
• The Cardinals are also terrible, logging a .291 mark over the same span.

Best bets: The UNDER and a Cardinals moneyline or F5 bet. The veteran righty is money at home.

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Marlins (+134), Rockies (-158)
Total: 9.5 runs
Sandy Alcantara (R) vs. Germán Márquez (R)

Three things to know

• Colorado’s 27.6% strikeout rate in the last week is the second-worst mark in the league.
• The Marlins stink at the dish, recording a .247 wOBA at the plate in the last week. Can Denver cure them?
• Germán Márquez has been awesome this season regardless of where he throws. Can he keep it up?

Best bets: The UNDER with these two struggling offenses.

Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Angels (+180), Dodgers (-220)
Total: 8.5 runs
Patrick Sandoval (L) vs. David Price (L)

Three things to know

• Patrick Sandoval’s change-up has led him to new heights – his 27.4% strikeout rate would easily be a career best.
• The Dodgers have been the league’s best offense recently with a .367 wOBA. Can they continue?
• The Angels have gone the other way, recording a .257 wOBA.

Best bets: A same-game parlay – I wouldn’t count on Price to pitch deep, but these two teams are headed in opposite directions.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+180), Padres (-220)
Total: 8.5 runs
Caleb Smith (L) vs. Ryan Weathers (L)

Three things to know

• Which San Diego offense is ready to show up? The one whiffing 24.7% of the time, or the one with a .329 wOBA?
• The Diamondbacks have also stunk, logging a 25.7% strikeout rate but an even worse .295 wOBA.
• Ryan Weathers was blasted last time out, but his 3.65 ERA and 1.25 WHIP has been outstanding this year.

Best bets: With Fernando Tatis out Jr., I am going against the grain and betting a F3/F5 on the DBacks.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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