Prop of the Day: Michael Thomas being asked to do too much?

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Michael Thomas UNDER 1,375.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

Thomas had a historic 2019 season, racking up a total of 149 receptions on a  whopping 185 targets. That massive amount of volume led to Thomas crushing the field with 1,725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Both efficiency and effectiveness played true with an elite 80.5% completion rate. Thomas’ career-year in 2019 easily surpasses the 2020 receiving yards prop of 1,375.5.  So why would 2020 be any different you may ask? Here’s why:

• In order to have a season replicable to 2019, Thomas needs everything and then some to go right again in 2020. That starts with his health along with the health of Drew Brees and the Saints offensive line. The O-line is a huge component toward Thomas being able to provide enough production to eclipse 1,376 receiving yards. Julio Jones was the only receiver outside of Thomas to accumulate the receiving yards needed. Baking in health and COVID-19 uncertainties create a bigger risk when putting money down on the over. 
• Brees is entering this season at the ripe age of 41. Brees’ ticket to the Hall of Fame is all but punched while being financially secure and possessing a Super Bowl ring. There have already been multiple players who have opted out of the season due to COVID-19. It wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever if Brees decided to opt-out, though that is just speculation on my part. If so, Jameis Winston would be Thomas’ quarterback. I don't have a crystal ball so let’s just say Brees plays all 16 games. What else could go wrong? Offensive lineman are being deemed “high risk” due to having a high body-mass index. The Saints O-line is easily a top-five unit. That changes if one or two linemen get hurt or opt out of the season.
• Ted Ginn Jr. and Tre'Quan Smith were the second and third wide receiver options in 2019. Ginn Jr. registered 30 receptions on 56 targets. Smith only garnered 18 receptions on 25 targets. Neither creates quick separation and Brees prides himself on getting the ball out quickly, leading to Thomas’ absurd target market share. The Saints front office addressed this issue early in the offseason by signing Emmanuel Sanders, who had an impressive 2019 season with 66 receptions on 97 targets. Albeit with two different teams in the Broncos and 49ers, Sanders showed his talent and grit. The lack of quick separation from Ginn and Smith had Brees dialed in on Thomas in 2019. However, Sanders can also create separation quickly. This skill set will certainly eat into Thomas’ volume, immediately posing a threat.
• The Saints have an elite defense that has the possibility of being even better in 2020. Last season, the Saints defense ranked third in the NFL with 51 sacks while being fifth in pressure rate (26.4%). This defense is filled with stars on every level and the numbers back it up. But why does the defense factor into Thomas’ receiving prop? Sean Payton and Brees won’t be in urgency mode and shootouts are less likely to be had if the defense gets better than they already are. 
• Their ground game ranked 16th last season with 108.6 rushing yards per game while Alvin Kamara wasn't wasn’t playing at 100%, battling ankle and knee issues. Kamara missed two games and tweeted that he was “On 1 leg. . . At 75%. . .but we back to 100”. A healthy Kamara very well may lead to quicker scoring, which equals less volume on offense.
• In order to cover an over you need all of the right components firing at once and all season. 1,376 receiving yards is a lot to ask for when there are a bunch of factors that could cripple the possibility to achieve the over.