Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Four days a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Today’s odds boost piece will focus on the NBA season restart, which tips off Thursday with a doubleheader between the Jazz/Pelicans and Clippers/Lakers. We’ll also take a look at some odds boosts for the WGC-Fed Ex St. Jude Invitational, which tees off Thursday morning.
If you’re looking for more value, make sure to subscribe for our platinum Fade the Noise Bets packages for the NFL, NBA, MLB and whatever other sports you’re interested in betting on.
Let’s dive in.
NBA Odds Boost
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6:30 p.m. ET Thursday)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers (9 p.m. ET Thursday)
Boosted bets: Los Angeles Lakers +2 (and dropping): -110 on FanDuel
Clippers and Jazz both to win: +385 on DraftKings (was +348)
The NBA is tipping off the restart with a nice two-game slate. It starts with the Jazz vs. the Pelicans, who will be fighting for their playoff lives in Orlando. The Pelicans are currently 3.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference, and they’re also a few percentage points behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 9 spot. They’ll need to jump the Blazers and finish no worse than 4.5 games behind the Grizzlies in order to trigger a play-in series for the final playoff spot.
Given that the Pelicans have everything to play for, the sportsbooks have actually made them slight favorites despite the Jazz owning the superior record.
Of course, the Pelicans might not be in this position if they had Zion Williamson all season. The Pelicans have been ridiculously good with Williamson on the court, outscoring opponents by +9.5 points per 100 possessions in that situation. It’s very possible that the Pelicans wouldn’t even be in this situation if Williamson was healthy all season.
Still, if you want to back the Jazz, you can pair them with the Clippers for a nice odds boost on DraftKings.
Regardless of who you like in the second game, you need to take advantage of the current “Spread the Love” promotion at FanDuel. They are dropping the spread on the Lakers with every 2,500 bets they take on them, and everyone gets the benefit of the reduced number regardless of when they locked in their bet.
The spread has already moved from Lakers -4 to Lakers +2, and it should continue to drop leading up to tip-off. You simply have to take that much value with the Lakers.
If you like the Clippers, you can just go ahead and target them as well at a different sportsbook at +4. That gives you a really wide spread to try and hit a middle.
PGA Odds Boost
WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (11 a.m. ET Thursday start)
Boosted bets: Any American to win: +100 on PointsBet (was -120)
Rory McIlroy to win: +1250 on DraftKings (was +1150)
Golf remains in full swing, and this week they’ll head to Tennessee for the St. Jude Invitational. This is a pretty loaded field, featuring guys like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and McIlroy.
McIlroy gets the benefit of the odds boost on DraftKings, which drops his odds to win to +1250. Luckily, this course should play to one of McIlroy’s biggest strengths. Axis highlights that driving distance and accuracy are important at TPC Southwind in his course preview, and McIlroy is fourth on tour in strokes gained off the tee.
If you’re looking to go for a bet with less risk, consider taking any American to win at even money on PointsBet. You do lose McIlory and Rahm, but that still leaves you with a host of golfers who are capable of winning the tournament. Five of the top seven golfers in terms of odds to win are American, and an American has won seven of the last eight events on the PGA Tour.
For more betting value, make sure to check out our staff’s favorite picks for this event.
