Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
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Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Rams -1.5, O/U 44.5
Rams
The Rams came back looking a lot healthier after their bye, getting Matthew Stafford back into the lineup and winning their first game since Week 6. Unfortunately, they lost Cooper Kupp midgame who exited in the first half and never came back. Kupp was stepped on by his teammate while blocking a defender, injuring the same that underwent tightrope surgery last season. According to David Chao, the injury is unrelated to anything that occurred in 2022 but appears to be a re-aggravation of an ankle sprain Kupp suffered in Week 11. After the game, Sean McVay stated “He was moving around at the beginning of the second half and we were hoping that he’d be able to go, but it just didn’t quite feel good enough.” There is a chance Kupp plays this weekend, currently listed as day-to-day.
If he does not suit up, Puka Nacua could be in line for another big day, catching five of seven passes for 70 yards and a touchdown in his last outing. Nacua has been a viable fantasy option all season, but his production has been significantly better with Kupp out or unavailable for the majority of the game.
The same can be said for Tutu Atwell who has been a non-factor since Kupp returned, seeing more than five targets just once.
Without Kupp in the first six weeks, Atwell saw eight-plus targets in every game, averaging 67.5 receiving yards per game. On a positive note, the Rams should finally get Kyren Williams back who was dealing with an ankle sprain of his own, missing the last four games on the injured reserve list.
Williams could not have asked for a better matchup in his first game back, facing a Cardinals defense ranked bottom five in DVOA against the rush (29th), allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Cardinals
The Cardinals are 1-1 since Kyler Murray’s return, losing to the Texans this past weekend in heartbreaking fashion. Greg Dortch was the unsung hero for Arizona, stepping in for Michael Wilson and leading the team in targets (8), receptions (6) and receiving yards (76). It’s hard to expect the same level of production from Dortch for a second consecutive week, but he can be viable as a WR3 or flex if Wilson is out. Wilson still has not returned to practice, dealing with a nagging shoulder injury, currently listed as questionable for Week 12.
Game Prop Bet: Kyren Williams Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, Bet365)
After opening the season as the RB2 behind Cam Akers, Kyren Williams took full control of the backfield from Week 2 on, operating as an every-down back. No running back has a better role than Williams this season, who leads the position in snap share (88%) and rush share (80%) in five games without Akers. Before getting hurt, Williams was on a tear, averaging 104.7 yards on the ground in his last three games. He could not have asked for a better matchup in his first game back which happens to be the same opponent he faced the last time he was on the field. The Cardinals are bottom three in DVOA against the rush (30th), allowing a league-high 26.6 carries and the fourth most rushing yards (110.8) per game to opposing backs. The last time Williams faced Arizona, he had a career day, handling 20 carries for 158 yards and a touchdown, with a very efficient 7.9 yards per attempt. The Rams also released Darrell Henderson earlier this week, likely indicating that Williams is 100% healthy and ready to take on a full workload. (Henderson was signed back to the practice squad, but that’s likely not a move the team makes if it isn’t confident in Williams’ return.)
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles: -3.5, O/U 48.5
Bills
The Bills offense under Joe Brady showed promising signs of improvement in Week 11, scoring 30-plus points for the first time since Week 4. Josh Allen was efficient on the day, completing 20 of 32 passes, for 275 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Khalil Shakir was the leading receiver on the day, catching three passes on four targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. Since Dawson Knox went down, Shakir has carved out a significant role in the offense, averaging 72 receiving yards per game. The main beneficiary of Knox’s absence has been Dalton Kincaid, who has operated as a safety valve for Allen, finally living up to his draft day pedigree. Kincaid has finished as a top-8 tight end in five consecutive weeks but may be harder to trust once Knox returns.
Knox has missed the last four games recovering from a wrist surgery and although he is eligible to return, the team does not expect him back this upcoming weekend.
Eagles
The Eagles finally got their redemption against the Chiefs, mounting a second-half comeback and defeating the reigning Super Bowl champions. Jalen Hurts struggled as a passer, throwing for just 150 yards through the air with one interception and no touchdowns. He did however find the end zone on the ground, scoring two rushing touchdowns for the second time this season. DeVonta Smith stepped up in the absence of Dallas Goedert, leading the team in targets (8), receptions (6), and receiving yards (99). Goedert managed to avoid the injured reserve list, recovering from a fractured forearm, but he is unlikely to suit up in Week 12.
Smith should be able to build upon his strong outing, averaging 86.5 receiving yards without Dallas Goedert over the last two seasons.
Game Prop Bet: Khalil Shakir Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, Bet365)
Since Dawson Knox went down, Khalil Shakir has taken full control of the WR3 role, running a route on 73% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. In Weeks 1-7, with Knox active, Shakir surpassed a 20% route participation rate just once with Buffalo using 12-personnel sets at the highest rate in the league. Shakir has at least one more week of relevancy before Knox returns, logging a career-high 115 yards in his last outing. He has cleared 29.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, averaging over 70 yards per game (72) without Knox this season. Allen should be forced to drop back early and often against Philadelphia’s run funnel defense that has allowed a league-high in targets (26.9) and receptions (16.8) per game to opposing wide receivers, while also giving up the third-most receiving yards to the position (193.1 yards per game).
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No Deshaun Watson, no problem for Cleveland, who defeated the Steelers, getting closer to punching their ticket into the postseason. They’ve won three games in a row, but no team has been hotter than the Broncos, who currently have the longest active win streak in the NFL (4). Can Dorian Thompson-Robinson keep the offense functional and pick up his second career win in Mile High? Can we trust Russell Wilson to keep it up, continuing to play at an elite level? The game is nearly a pick ‘em with the Broncos getting 1.5 points at home, but which team has the bigger advantage in health? Find out for yourself using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!
