Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It’s shaping up to be a very fun NBA DFS slate Tuesday, as we have seven of the eight games with an eight-point spread or lower. The play-in tournament has changed the landscape, so more teams are still playing hard, and that’s been much more fun for the product overall — every game tonight features at least one team that’s got something to play for. That makes it far more exciting, so let’s find five players that can make a difference.
1. Marvin Bagley played another 36 minutes Monday night
The Pistons find themselves on a second leg of a back-to-back situation, but they didn’t have to travel overnight, a small help to the players. They welcome in the Washington Wizards, and Bagley has now logged 34 and 36 minutes in his past two games. He was one of the most popular players on the slate Monday but didn’t exactly pay off with just 24.0 DK points. The sample size is still relatively small at about 210 minutes, but in the scenario the Pistons are likely to be in for Tuesday, Bagley has scored 1.26 points per minute. The Wizards are also just 22nd against skilled centers according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool so I’m ready to go right back to playing Bagley for this slate with an enormous ceiling outcome still very possible.
2. The Hornets are 29th in rebounds allowed per game
Everyone will want to play some New York Knicks, and if Jalen Brunson misses this game, they’re going to be the chalk of the slate, most likely. Players like Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are extremely cheap in that scenario but Mitchell Robinson is one player who looks strong no matter what:
Charlotte has not been able to deal with big men all year, and accomplished rebounders can give them fits. Robinson is averaging 15.6 rebound chances per game, and that’s where most of his scoring opportunities will come from. The Hornets allow the eighth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and while Robinson isn’t a threat to score more fantasy points than his teammates, he’s a great addition to any Knicks exposure you already have especially on DK where he’s under $5,000.
3. The Thunder have allowed the seventh-highest 3-point frequency
Stephen Curry has entered the chat. Not only did he play 32 minutes in his first game returning from a leg injury Sunday, but the Warriors and Thunder are first and third in pace. This game carries the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points and this game also has the third-best stack rating in the FTN NBA Game Environment Tool. The Warriors are still missing Andrew Wiggins and without him, Curry sees his usage rate creep up over 35.0% while he’s shooting 42.6% from beyond the arc. To Oklahoma City’s credit, they are only mid-pack in field goal rate allowed but they just give up the 3-point shot too much in addition to being just 21st in points allowed in the paint per game. Curry scores 6.5 points per game from drives to the basket and his price on both sites has my eyes for Tuesday.
4. Spencer Dinwiddie has scored 1.00 points per minute when Mikal Bridges is on the court
The Nets are in Houston to take on the Rockets, and that’s been a team that we’ve targeted since the season kicked off. Houston cannot play defense at all, and they are dead last against primary ball handlers while Dinwiddie has a 22.7% usage rate and 32.1% assist rate. Since he returned to Brooklyn, Dinwiddie has averaged 74.9 touches per game and that’s more than players such as Chris Paul, Ja Morant and CJ McCollum in that period. He’s been sort of the forgotten man as Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson have gotten a lot of love as the nets make a playoff push, but we shouldn’t forget about Dinwiddie in this spot. I want one of these three Nets in the majority of my lineups as this is the highest-rated game in the stack rating. I feel as though Dinwiddie could come in as the lowest rostered of the trio and that will be something to keep in mind.
5. Tyus Jones is still over $1,000 too cheap on DK
While this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison to the Sunday game, since Dillon Brooks will play, they are still without Ja Morant. In case you needed a reminder of how massive that has been for Jones this season, allow the FTN Splits Tool to remind you –
The Lakers are 28th against dimers and 27th against primary ball handlers while Jones scores 1.01 points per minute. He also leads the team in assist rate at 31.3% and Los Angeles ranking second in pace is just a cherry on top.
