NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to the Week 8 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 8 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 6th, +1 vs. consensus (7th)
+ Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 2.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 9 touchdowns but has 11.25 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 10th biggest 2.25-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Bears (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 vs. consensus (8th)
+ Venue: Dak Prescott has averaged 3.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Ravens (76 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 vs. consensus (9th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 8 touchdowns but has 12.63 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 4.63-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Derek Carr, Raiders at Saints (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 10th, +2 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Derek Carr has thrown just 9 touchdowns but has 12.46 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth biggest 3.46-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: Carr has faced the third-easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 16th, +2 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split between the Rams and Lions, both with dome stadiums).
+ Efficiency: Stafford has thrown just 6 touchdowns but has 11.55 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 5.55-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.
Daniel Jones, Giants at Seahawks (54 degrees with moderate winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 11th, -1 vs. consensus (12th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. Giants (54 degrees with moderate winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 12th, -1 vs. consensus (13th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Geno Smith has thrown 11 touchdowns but has just 8.40 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 2.60-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers at Rams (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 15th, -1 vs. consensus (14th)
– Efficiency: Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 9 touchdowns but has just 6.53 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth biggest 2.47-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Rams have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. Broncos in London (63 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 17th, -2 vs. consensus (15th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.71 per game in 2022, the most in football.
+ Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence has thrown just 9 touchdowns but has 11.89 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth-biggest 2.89-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers at Bills (47 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 18th, -1 vs. consensus (17th)
– Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Justin Fields, Bears at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (19th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.51 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Week 8 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins at Lions (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 15th, +1 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.89 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys vs. Bears (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Najee Harris, Steelers at Eagles (56 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Najee Harris for 19.8 carries + targets this week, 14th at his position (he has averaged 19.0 carries + targets the last two weeks after having the steel plate removed from his shoe from a preseason Lisfranc injury).
+ Efficiency: Harris has scored just 2 touchdowns but has 3.40 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.40-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Harris ranks fourth from last at his position with -1.26 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons vs. Panthers (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 27th, +1 vs. consensus (28th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Allgeier for 15.9 carries + targets this week, tied for 27th at his position (he has averaged 14.7 carries + targets the last three weeks and played a season-high 62% snap share in versus a 23% share for Caleb Huntley in Week 7).
+ Efficiency: Allgeier has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.59 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.59-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers at Falcons (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +5 vs. consensus (37th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chuba Hubbard for 14.3 carries + targets this week, 29th at his position (he saw 12 carries + targets and played 46% of snaps versus 17 and 54% for D’Onta Foreman in Week 7 but was pacing the backfield before a reportedly minor ankle injury forced him out with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter and yielded the last nine carries to Foreman).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, third most in football.
– Efficiency: Hubbard has run in 1 touchdown but has just 0.12 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.88-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
AJ Dillon, Packers at Bills (47 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 35th, +1 vs. consensus (36th)
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.28 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.28-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Rachaad White, Bucs vs. Ravens (76 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 40th, +2 vs. consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: Leonard Fournette’s yards after contact per attempt is down from 2.87 and 2.99 yards in 2020 and 2021 to 1.72 yards in 2022 and could prompt head coach Todd Bowles to play White more (White saw a season-high 43% snap share in Week 7).
David Montgomery, Bears at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: I am projecting David Montgomery for 14.6 carries + targets this week, 28th at his position (he saw a season-low 15 carries + targets in a healthy start in Week 7 versus 14 for Khalil Herbert after his head coach Matt Eberflus announced he planned to ride the hot hand going forward).
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Jamaal Williams, Lions vs. Dolphins (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 28th, -4 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting Jamaal Williams for 13.4 carries + targets this week — assuming D’Andre Swift plays — 32nd at his position (Swift returned to practice Wednesday).
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Gus Edwards, Ravens at Bucs (76 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -2 vs. consensus (31st)
– Efficiency: Gus Edwards has run in 2 touchdowns but has just 0.89 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.26-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Week 8 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson, Steelers at Eagles (56 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 21st, +3 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Diontae Johnson for 9.5 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 9.6 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Johnson has not caught a touchdown but has 2.08 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.08-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
DJ Moore, Panthers at Falcons (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +3 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting DJ Moore for 8.5 targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 8.8 targets in four PJ Walker starts since 2020).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.45 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Brandin Cooks, Texans vs. Titans (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 24th, +3 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brandin Cooks for 8.5 targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 7.8 targets in 2022 and will not have Nico Collins competing for targets in Week 8).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.58 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Zay Jones, Jaguars vs. Broncos in London (63 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 46th, +2 vs. consensus (48th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 6.9 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he has averaged 7.8 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.57 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.57-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.71 per game in 2022, the most in football.
– Opponent: Pat Surtain has allowed just a 55% catch rate on his targets this season, 10th lowest among cornerbacks with 200 or more routes in coverage.
Allen Robinson, Rams vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 49th, +1 vs. consensus (50th)
+ Efficiency: Allen Robinson has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.11 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 2.11-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns vs. Bengals (59 degrees with a 25% chance of light rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 53rd, +1 vs. consensus (54th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Donovan Peoples-Jones for 6.2 targets this week, 41st at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets in 2022 and will not have David Njoku competing for targets in Week 8).
+ Efficiency: Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 2.00 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.00-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Parris Campbell, Colts vs. Commanders (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 54th, +1 vs. consensus (55th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Parris Campbell for 5.5 targets this week, 50th at his position (he has averaged 11.5 targets the last two weeks since head coach Frank Reich told reporters that Campbell was “on the edge”).
Gabe Davis, Bills vs. Packers (47 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -3 vs. consensus (19th)
– Efficiency: Davis has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 1.42 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.58-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Volume: I am projecting Gabe Davis for 6.0 targets this week, tied for 43rd at his position (he has averaged 5.2 targets in 2022).
Christian Kirk, Jaguars vs. Broncos in London (63 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 26th, -4 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.71 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders at Colts (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 27th, -4 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers at Rams (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 30th, -1 vs. consensus (29th)
– Efficiency: Brandon Aiyuk has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.51 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.49-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Rams have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders at Colts (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 34th, -2 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Marquise Goodwin, Seahawks vs. Giants (54 degrees with moderate winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 62nd, -2 vs. consensus (60th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Marquise Goodwin has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.66 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.36-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Week 8 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Eagles (56 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 vs. consensus (8th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Pat Freiermuth for 7.5 targets this week, second at his position (he has averaged 7.8 targets his five healthy games in 2022).
Irv Smith, Vikings vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 12th, +1 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 16.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
Juwan Johnson, Saints vs. Raiders (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Raiders have allowed 14.0 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third most in football.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.54 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Harrison Bryant, Browns vs. Bengals (59 degrees with a 25% chance of light rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 21st, +3 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Harrison Bryant for 4.7 targets this week, tied for 17th at his position (David Njoku is out this week with a sprained ankle).
+ Efficiency: Bryant has not caught a touchdown but has 0.85 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.85-touchdown surplus should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Taysom Hill, Saints vs. Raiders (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 10th, -3 vs. consensus (7th)
– Efficiency: Taysom Hill has run in 5 touchdowns but has just 1.01 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that league-leading 3.99-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Hill ranks second with 1.45 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Robert Tonyan, Packers at Bills (47 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 13th, -3 vs. consensus (10th)
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Dawson Knox, Bills vs. Packers (47 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 14th, -2 vs. consensus (12th)
– Opponent: The Packers have allowed 5.3 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for third lowest in football.
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Evan Engram, Jaguars vs. Broncos in London (63 degrees and cloudy)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.71 per game in 2022, the most in football.
+ Efficiency: Evan Engram has not caught a touchdown but has 1.37 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth highest 1.37-touchdown surplus should regress positively the rest of the season.
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Giants (54 degrees with moderate winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -2 vs. consensus (21st)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Cole Kmet, Bears at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.51 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Will Dissly, Seahawks vs. Giants (54 degrees with moderate winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 8 Positional Ranking: 25th, -2 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Will Dissly has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 0.60 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.40-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
