NFL Splits Tool, Week 5: The Atlanta Offense with Marcus Mariota

After seven-plus months of preparation and analysis, the NFL season is in full swing as we head into Week 5 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.

The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.

Turning the Page in Atlanta

After three consecutive losing seasons, the Falcons underwent a change in regime during the 2021 offseason. They brought in Terry Fontenot as the new general manager and hired former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith as the new head coach. Despite rumors suggesting the new front office may be looking to move on from Matt Ryan, they opted to keep the veteran quarterback with a focus on staying competitive while also building toward the future. Unfortunately, Atlanta couldn’t quite get over the hump, going 7-10 and logging a fourth straight losing season. Entering the 2022 offseason, Ryan carried the largest cap hit in the league ($48.66 million), leaving the Falcons minimal flexibility against the salary cap. As a result, they restructured Ryan’s deal, converting $7.5 million into a roster bonus. However, once Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson became available, the Flacons postponed Ryan’s bonus in an attempt to bring Watson to Atlanta. Although they could not reach an agreement with Watson, the Falcons ended up trading Ryan to the Colts in exchange for a 2022 third-round draft pick. They turned toward free agency to fill the void at quarterback and signed Marcus Mariota to a two-year, $18.75 million contract. Mariota has had familiarity with Smith’s offensive scheme from their time together in Tennessee. In this article, I am going to look at how the Flacon’s offense has changed with Mariota under center relative to last season.

Falcons Offense

Following a Week 4 home win against the Browns last Sunday, the Falcons are 2-2, tied with the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South. Although their offense hasn’t looked great, they are averaging over a touchdown per game than a season ago. With Mariota under center, the Falcons have leaned heavier on the ground game and have the second-fewest pass attempts in the league (98). Through four weeks, the Falcons are one of just two teams held under 100 passing attempts. Their overall passing numbers are down from 2021. However, they have gotten much better in the rushing department. Atlanta is currently top-5 in the league in rush attempts (672) and rushing yards (672). Mariota has been a significant factor in the run game, averaging 7.5 rush attempts and 23.75 rush yards per game. After a less-than-stellar start to the season, it’s fair to assume that Mariota’s days as the starter may be number. The Falcons have been cautious about letting Mariota air it out and have a third rookie quarterback, Desmond Ridder, waiting in the wings.

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB

After eight years in the NFL, mainly as a kick returner specialist, Cordarrelle Patterson broke the age model with a career year in his age-30 season. He excelled as both a receiver and a running back, posting career highs in touches (205), yards from scrimmage (1,166) and touchdowns (11). He also maintained his role on special teams, logging 434 yards as a kick returner. Patterson picked up where he left off in 2022 and was second in the league in rushing yards entering Week 4. He joined Nick Chubb as the only player with over 300 rushing yards in the first three weeks of the season. Patterson had seen an uptick in rushing attempts and rushing yards this season but was less involved as a pass catcher. Unfortunately, Patterson could not finish the game last Sunday and was placed on IR following a foot procedure. The backfield will likely be split into a committee featuring Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley, who both saw 10-plus touches in Patterson’s absence. It’s also worth noting Damien Williams is eligible to return in Week 6 and was the next man up on the depth chart before going down with a rib injury. 

Kyle Pitts, TE 

The Falcons’ made history when they drafted Kyle Pitts fourth overall in the 2021 NFL draft. It was the highest pick ever allocated to a tight end. Pitts was the quintessential mismatch, standing at 6-foot-6, 246 pounds, and running a 4.45 40-yard dash. His combination of size, speed and athleticism was on full display in his rookie season. Pitts caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards and one touchdown, becoming the first tight end to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in his first year since Mike Ditka in 1961. Unfortunately, Pitts has not been nearly productive in his second season and has declined in every receiving metric across the board. He is currently second among tight ends in air yards (346) and top five in target share (24%). However, Pitts has suffered from the lack of pass volume in Atlanta and the quality of targets.