Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Over the past month, I have been breaking down different ADP trends biweekly to identify players that I like at their current NFC ADP as values. With training camp underway, this article will be shifting to a weekly update of ADP. The NFL season is underway which means there is just more drafting volume, with more casual fantasy gamers starting to dip their toes in the 2022 fantasy draft waters.
The start of training camp also signals an increase in practice videos on social media. Teams are releasing big plays (especially with rookies), which can create a perception that will drive ADP spikes. Additionally, players are starting to get dinged up, injured or put on the PUP list, which can hurt where players are going in drafts. This article will focus on those spikes and dips, identifying which ones are legitimate and which ones we should be cautious buying into.
Big Risers
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Over the last week, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s ADP has risen from pick 67 to pick 58 as videos and reports from training camp show him making big plays down the field. Ultimately, fantasy managers were burned by an unfortunate injury in a crowded receiving room during his last season with the Steelers in 2021 after a year that saw him play in just five games and produce 15 receptions and 129 receiving yards. Smith-Schuster is generally viewed as a disappointment since he hasn’t come close to producing at the same level as his second season in the NFL (111 receptions, 1,426 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns), but that criticism isn’t necessarily fair. The veteran receiver is just one year removed from catching 97 of 128 targets for 831 yards and nine touchdowns with a washed Ben Roethlisberger while competing with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.
Over the past two weeks, Smith-Schuster has climbed to the WR28 in redraft leagues. However, there are still reasons to be cautious about that price tag. The truth is, we have no idea how the Kansas City passing attack will shake out after Travis Kelce. Smith-Schuster has the most NFL production of the rest of the receiving room, but the team signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a bigger contract and drafted Skyy Moore with a second-round pick. By all accounts, Smith-Schuster has looked good in training camp. Just be cautious overpaying for a passing attack that is as nebulous as the Chiefs in 2022.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
This week, we finally got one step closer to clarity regarding Deshaun Watson during the 2022 season when he was handed a six-game suspension. While the NFL can still adjust the suspension, the initial ruling does suggest that Watson can play during the upcoming season. Watson saw his ADP skyrocket over the last week as rumors started to circulate about a 4-8 game suspension, causing his draft position to jump up nearly 38 spots to the 143rd pick in NFC drafts. Over the last week, Watson has jumped to QB19 in drafts. Off-field issues aside, Watson is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and has shown top-five ability on bad Houston Texans teams. However, fantasy managers need to exercise caution as his ADP continues to climb.
Over the last three seasons, five quarterbacks have missed five or six games and finished top-24 in scoring. In 2019, Ryan Tannehill (12 games) and Drew Brees (11 games) finished as the QB21 and QB22 respectively. In 2020 it was Brees (12 games, QB21) and Carson Wentz (12 games, QB22). Finally, last season Lamar Jackson played in 12 games and secured a finish as QB14. Jackson is the outlier, but a lot of his production was raised by his ability to both run and pass the football. Watson is guaranteed to miss more games than any of those quarterbacks and doesn’t have the rushing ability of Jackson. Additionally, Watson hasn’t played an NFL snap since the 2019 season and will take the field in a new offense with a completely new cast of characters. As talented as Watson is, it is hard to imagine an outcome where he produces a top-15 fantasy season if he’s guaranteed to miss six games.
At QB19, Watson provides enough upside, especially if you can afford to stash him on the bench throughout the early part of the season. However, if Watson’s ADP continues to climb higher, it becomes much more difficult to play a quarterback that will have two years of rust to work through.
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Early training camp reports suggest Tyler Allgeier has looked good throughout training camp, especially once full pads came on. His ADP has risen accordingly, jumping 10 spots in the last week. Allgeier was an interesting prospect throughout the draft process: On one hand, he produced at a massive level at BYU last season (304 total touches, 1,800 yards and 23 touchdowns), but on the other, he had underwhelming athletic numbers in the pre-draft process (4.60 40-yard at 221 pounds) that ultimately forced him to drop to a fifth-round pick for the Falcons during the 2022 NFL Draft.
The Falcons don’t have a traditional running back returning from last season. Their most productive player out of the backfield was Cordarrelle Patterson, but he will likely once again be used both as a rusher and receiver for a team lacking playmakers. Patterson’s ability to line up all over the field is extremely valuable for a team without a wide variety of weapons. There is a realistic chance Allgeier can win a consistent two-down role in the offense and possible factor in for goal-line situations. The rookie is currently being drafted as the RB49 in redraft leagues and is easily worth a flier given the uncertainty of Atlanta’s run game.
Big Fallers
Matt Ryan, QB, Indianapolis Colts
In general, the quarterback position has taken a collective hit during the last week. As more casual fantasy gamers enter drafts, you see quarterback value drop as teams emphasize skill positions and focus less on quarterbacks. However, Matt Ryan has suffered the greatest drop in the position, falling 21 spots to pick 173 over the last week. Ryan has gotten glowing reports from the Colts’ coaches and wide receivers (hard to get less praise than Carson Wentz), which makes his ADP dip a bit interesting, to say the least.
Ryan will enter this season behind a strong offensive line in a run-first offense that has interesting pieces at receiver. Michael Pittman is coming off his best season (88 receptions, 1,082 yards, 6 touchdowns), Parris Campbell is healthy and flashing his explosiveness in camp, and Alec Pierce has made big plays after being drafted in the second round. Ryan is likely better than his “down” season in 2021 when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. He remains an excellent target as a QB2 (he’s currently off the board as QB20) in fantasy drafts. Buy the dip.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
As training camp goes on, Jameson Williams is one player we don’t have any clarity about for the 2022 season. Williams burst onto the scene last year after transferring to Alabama from Ohio State, finishing with 79 receptions for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns in 15 games. Unfortunately, a torn ACL in the National Championship game threw his draft process and rookie season in flux. Williams was still taken with a top-15 pick after the Lions traded up to select him, but there has been very little clarity on his status apart from Detroit putting him on the NFI list to start training camp.
Historically, ACL injuries take nine months to heal and typically a year for players to return to “normal.” It seems very unlikely that Williams avoids the PUP List to begin the season, which means he will be out at least four weeks (and possibly longer). There is always the chance Detroit could decide to essentially redshirt Williams if they are bad again this season and give him a year to get completely healthy. Jared Goff isn’t known for his deep passing ability (Williams is lethal after the catch so this isn’t a huge deal when he’s healthy), but the team could decide to let him loose with potentially a new quarterback under center in 2023.
In the last week, Williams has dropped 11 spots in ADP and is currently being taken with pick 160 in NFC drafts. I’m generally wary of players coming off significant injuries, so I’ll continue to fade him in redraft leagues for the upcoming season.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
In the last week, Hayden Hurst has dropped 12 spots of ADP in NFC drafts and is currently being selected with pick 217. This drop is surprising considering the positive reports of his training camp so far. Hurst was a disappointment with the Falcons last season, catching just 26 of 31 targets for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, he will have a prime opportunity to have a productive season in Cincinnati while teams try to figure out ways to slow down the combination of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. In the same offense last season, C.J. Uzomah finished fourth on the team in targets (63), receptions (49) and receiving yards (493) while finishing tied for third in receiving touchdowns (5). If Chase, Higgins or Boyd get injured, the team lacks depth behind them which will only benefit Hurst in the passing attack. The veteran tight end is currently being taken as the TE24, making him an excellent value for fantasy managers who fade the position and want to take a shot at a player in a high-volume passing attack.
