Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. Max Scherzer is fifth in all of baseball with a 32% K% this year
Max Scherzer will turn 38 years old in a couple months, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down with his new team, the Mets. In the absence of Jacob deGrom, Scherzer has stepped in as the ace of the staff. Pitching at home against the St. Louis Cardinals is an advantageous matchup for Scherzer. The Cardinals projected lineup has six right-handed batters in it and Scherzer has dominated right-handed hitters this year with a 37% K%, 3% BB%, and .013 ISO allowed. Scherzer is my preferred spend-up option on this slate at $10,600 on DraftKings.
2. Drew Smyly has a 3.86 xFIP this season
Perhaps more importantly, Drew Smyly has a 53% ground ball percentage this year. His career GB% is just 37% and last year his GB% was 39%, so he could regress in this aspect at some point, but it’s still a positive that Smyly has kept the ball on the ground so far this season. Smyly is $7,100 on DraftKings here, which is quite a bit more than Wade Miley’s price Monday, but I still want to attack the weak Pirates lineup with a left-handed pitcher. Smyly’s Cubs are also big favorites in this game at home at -165. It depends on how expensive the stacks I end up using tonight are, but I think Scherzer and Smyly are my favorite pair of pitchers on DraftKings tonight. Smyly is definitely my favorite value pitcher.
3. Gerrit Cole has a 33% K% since the start of last year
Gerrit Cole gets the Orioles in Baltimore Wednesday. While he shouldn’t have trouble with the right-handed batters in the O’s lineup, the matchups with Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander are interesting. Both Mullins and Santander have ISOs above .219 against right-handed pitchers since the start of last season. Cole, on the other hand, has allowed a .174 ISO to left-handed batters compared to just .135 against right-handed batters since the start of last year. Santander also homered twice in Monday night’s game with one of the blasts coming against right-handed Yankees starter Luis Severino. Cole is my second favorite spend up option on this slate behind Scherzer. The Yankees are big favorites at -280 in Baltimore, where the fences were moved back 25 feet in left field this year. That won’t impact left-handed hitters like Mullins and Santander, who I think are at least interesting as contrarian plays.
4. Kevin Gausman has the lowest BB% in all of baseball at 1%
Kevin Gausman is a stud. 2.40 ERA, 2.50 xERA, 0.82 FIP, and 2.10 xFIP for him on the season so far. That’ll play against anyone, especially here where he’s pitching at home against a slumping Seattle Mariners offense that Blue Jays pitchers have held down each of the last two days. Gausman is being priced like an ace, though, at $10,100 on DraftKings and given that he hasn’t been an ace for as long as Scherzer and Cole, he doesn’t grade out quite as well for me on this slate. Still, he’s very much in play until he stops pitching so well. In three-entry max contests on DraftKings, it’s entirely possible that I’ll have one of Scherzer, Cole and Gausman in each lineup.
5. Shohei Ohtani’s career ERA on the road is 5.01
I’ve been on the Rangers each of the last two nights against the Angels, and they’ve come through both times. Shohei Ohtani is certainly a better pitcher than Noah Syndergaard or Reid Detmers, though, so this could be the spot where the Angels put the Rangers back in their place. However, Ohtani has been much better when pitching at home in his career. While his last two road starts this year have been great, he allowed six earned runs in 3.2 innings in his first road start of the year, which you probably could’ve guessed was against these same Rangers. I might not get there in my main lineup, but I’ll have some Rangers again in three-max contests.
6. Jordan Lyles has a 5.04 xFIP this season
Not much has changed for Jordan Lyles with his new team in Baltimore — his xFIP was 5.03 last year. The Yankees have been absolutely rolling so far this season with the best record in all of baseball and the best run differential in the American League. Star right fielder Aaron Judge has been on fire lately, coming about a foot shy of hitting three home runs in last night’s game. The Yankees are huge favorites in this game and my top stack on this slate. Their big bats are priced up, but Joey Gallo ($3,200) and Josh Donaldson ($4,000) are still too cheap on DraftKings.
7. Zack Greinke has a 5.50 xFIP this season
Since the beginning of last season, Zack Greinke has allowed a .205 ISO to right-handed batters. That’s not what you want going up against a White Sox lineup with a good amount of right-handed power in it in Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, José Abreu, Andrew Vaughn and AJ Pollock. The pricing is also really good on some of those guys as Abreu comes in at just $4,100 and Pollack is minimum priced at $2,000 on DraftKings. The White Sox aren’t in the top three teams in implied run total on this slate, but Chicago is my second-favorite stack on this slate behind the Yankees.
