Rookie/Veteran Fantasy Faceoff: Should You Draft Tetairoa McMillan or Rashee Rice in 2025?

Welcome back to another edition of Fantasy Faceoff.

In this weekly series, we examine two players at the same position who are being drafted in a similar range per current Underdog ADP (at least until we get some reliable redraft ADP later in the summer). This exercise puts these players side-by-side, outlining the cases for and against each, ultimately leading to a final verdict.

This week, our subjects are Carolina Panthers rookie Tetairoa McMillan (ADP WR23) and Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (ADP WR21):

(All stats per FTN’s NFL StatsHub unless otherwise noted)

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

The Case for McMillan

The eighth overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, McMillan is a dynamic playmaker who should help quarterback Bryce Young significantly and (hopefully) transform the Carolina Panthers’ offense.

As FTN’s Jeremy Popielarz outlines in McMillan’s complete scouting profile, this 6-foot-4 speedster fits the mold of a traditional X receiver on the perimeter of the field. He carries a bit of a slight frame (219 pounds) and will need to improve upon his physicality at the next level, however McMillan possesses the requisite skills to beat defenders in space and rip off extended chunk-yardage plays.

Personally, I think he gives major Drake London vibes as a prospect coming out of USC in 2022.

Speaking of London, recent history tells us that wide receivers taken early are frequently high-volume target earners from jump. Consider that eight wide receivers have been selected within the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft in the past five years:

• Ja’Marr Chase (2021, fifth overall, Cincinnati Bengals)
• Jaylen Waddle (2021, sixth overall, Miami Dolphins)
• DeVonta Smith (2021, tenth overall, Philadelphia Eagles)
• Drake London (2022, eighth overall, Atlanta Falcons)
• Garrett Wilson (2022, tenth overall, New York Jets)
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024, fourth overall, Arizona Cardinals)
• Malik Nabers (2024, sixth overall, New York Giants)
• Rome Odunze (2024, ninth overall, Chicago Bears)

Each of these players recorded at least 100 targets in his debut campaign, and only Odunze registered below double-digit PPR points per game. An immediate WR1 season isn’t guaranteed here, but when teams take pass-catchers early, they typically want to feature them right away — we like that!

Fortunately, McMillan faces little incumbent target competition on the Panthers’ roster. There’s no “alpha” presence to concern ourselves with when projecting out this situation. Not a single player in Carolina tallied a target share of 15% or higher under first-year head coach Dave Canales in 2024.

Their leading target earner, Xavier Legette (84), flashed some nice big-play ability as a first-year pro, but 49 receptions and 497 receiving yards (8.3 PPR points per game in fantasy terms) don’t scream “superstar” by any means. He’ll likely serve in a secondary complementary fashion that ought not worry prospective McMillan managers.

Beyond Legette, the only other pass-catcher of note is veteran Adam Thielen, who is entering his age-35 season and missed seven games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the two-time Pro Bowler regularly contribute to this aerial attack in some capacity, although Thielen isn’t exactly in his peak form at this stage of his career.

All in all, fantasy football is a game based on opportunity. Circumstances here are shaping up quite nicely for McMillan to immediately become the top target on his team and finish his rookie year with significant volume (assuming health).

The Case Against McMillan

Confidence in McMillan’s opportunity is one thing, but trusting that the Panthers’ offense will be effective is quite a leap. I’m typically not one to vastly oversimplify matters, although if we’re being honest, this situation boils down to Bryce Young.

The former Heisman Trophy winner flopped at the beginning of 2024 and was benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton following Week 2. Had it not been for Dalton sustaining a thumb injury before Week 8 vs. the Denver Broncos, there’s no guarantee that we would’ve even seen Young under center again last season.

To highlight this reality, consider that the Panthers ranked relatively low in multiple key offensive categories in 2024:

• Passing Offense DVOA: -4.7%, 28th in the NFL
• Passing Yards per Game: 200.6, 31st
• Adjusted Completion Rate: 74.0%, 27th
• Explosive Pass Rate: 7.9%, 24th

In fairness, both Young and the Panthers’ offense as a whole looked better from about Week 12 through the end of the regular season. Young ranked 12th among qualified quarterbacks in Expected Points Added (34.57) during that stretch and threw for 226.1 passing yards per game, a relatively nice upgrade above his putrid career average of 176.0.

Still, we’re talking marginal improvement on what’s been a very disappointing start to Young’s NFL career overall. How disappointing exactly? Let’s comb through some numbers.

Per Stathead, 41 quarterbacks have started at least 10 games since the beginning of the 2023 season (when Young’s career began). In that timeframe, here’s how the Carolina signal-caller ranks among his peers:

• 38th in passer rating (77.3%)
• 38th in passing success rate (37.5%)
• 38th in touchdown rate (2.9%)
• 39th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.27)

Again, I hate to oversimplify things, but McMillan might have difficulty doing well if his quarterback isn’t good. That’s a distinct possibility entering Young’s third season!

The Drake London parallel isn’t just a playstyle thing for McMillan either. These same quarterback issues affected London early in his career when he had Desmond Ridder at the helm in Atlanta.

If we remember, Ridder was just about as crummy as Young during that time, and that’s why London put up 10.7 and 10.8 PPR points per game, respectively, across his first two seasons. Yeah, London saw a whopping 226 targets in that span, but was it worthwhile?

Not as anything more than WR4-level production, no.

That’s the significant risk here with McMillan. This situation could be hideous for everyone involved if Bryce Young’s individual development and performance don’t come along.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

The Case for Rice

When healthy, Rice has been one of the most effective wideouts in the NFL over the past two years.

The former SMU product had a robust rookie season in 2023, tallying 79 receptions on 102 targets, 938 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, with a 15.4% target share that ranked second on the Chiefs behind only tight end Travis Kelce (18.3%). Moreover, Rice’s 2.5 yards per route run that year stood second-best among his rookie peers behind only Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (2.7), and his 13.4 PPR points per game (WR27) tied for third among rookies with Jayden Reed of the Green Bay Packers.

One more fun fact? Rice holds the second-highest catch rate (78.6%) among all wideouts with at least 100 targets over the past two seasons, per Stathead.

The 25-year-old was trending toward a proper breakout in 2024, but a significant knee injury that we’ll talk more about later on got in the way. It’s still worth looking at the small sample size, though.

In his four-week span of playing three healthy games, Rice recorded an average of 16.2 PPR points per game (10th best among wide receivers), 3.5 yards per route run, and even saw a substantive jump in target share to 22.7%.

Taking a closer look under the hood at the numbers spells an intriguing future for Rice:

• He received 20 first-read targets from quarterback Patrick Mahomes through Week 4, five more than Travis Kelce and nearly twice as many (11) as Xavier Worthy It’s clear that Mahomes was looking for Rice early and often.
  Considering that Rice left Week 4 early enough in the game that he didn’t even record a single target, this is a pretty important note. It’s at least reasonable to assume, based on the limited information we have, that Rice likely would’ve been the driving catalyst for the Chiefs’ passing efforts last year.
• For as tricky and unreliable as the extrapolation game can be, Rice’s clip of 7.3 targets per game paces out to a 124-target season. Such a total eventually would’ve ranked as the 11th-highest among wide receivers last year, just ahead of Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos (123).

Should we choose to be as optimistic as possible, we kinda sorta already witnessed Rice’s ascension. He was awesome as a rookie and took the leaps that fantasy managers wanted to see early last season in Year 2.

All he has to do is just be healthy and on the field, right?

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The Case Against Rice

Full transparency, I am neither a medical expert nor a legal scholar. Remember that, because much of what’s working against Rice moving forward deals with stuff in those realms.

So let’s talk about Rice’s injury, shall we? He suffered a torn LCL in his right knee after colliding with Mahomes on the field in Week 4 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers. In early October, he underwent a procedure to repair his knee and a tendon in his hamstring, with a timeline to return to landing within 3-4 months.

Considering that this injury was initially believed to be an ACL tear (typically a 10- to 12-month recovery), Rice honestly ended up fairly well off in the luck department. He’s already working out in his rehab process, and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid recently stated that the wideout is “on track to be ready” for training camp, per Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star.

Overall, Rice seems to be fine, though any significant injury to a player should be mentioned in this exercise.

Now, I don’t want to harp on the hamstring component, but I frankly don’t remember even hearing about that part of Rice’s surgery. At least anecdotally speaking, soft tissue injuries have a propensity to linger and affect players over extended periods.

To be clear, I saw no information suggesting Rice’s hamstring is a present concern, but hey, it’s just something to remember he had surgery on. At least be mindful of that as we head into camp and hear reports about how Rice is coming along at full speed.

Here, we get to the even more fun part: Rice’s legal situation.

He’s still facing eight felony charges stemming from an April 2024 car crash in Dallas. My earnest efforts to independently research the matter yielded no concrete updates; however, this excellent writeup from Footballguys contributor and real-life attorney Drew Davenport regarding Rice’s legal standing will undoubtedly provide greater context and information than I could.

To summarize Davenport’s assessment, there is no imminent risk of Rice facing suspension in 2025. That could change; we’ll have to see as the summer unfolds, but the fact that an early-round fantasy draft pick has an ominous legal cloud looming over his head is a bit unsettling, if nothing else.

Are you comfortable investing significant draft capital into Rice, knowing it might happen? It all comes down to risk tolerance at that point.

The Verdict: Rashee Rice

From an on-field perspective, I’m reasonably certain of Rice’s status as a high-end target earner in the Chiefs’ offense. Nothing significant occurred this offseason in the form of added competition or what have you to sway me from that, either. The whole case against him truly does come more from off the field in areas I’m not well-versed in.

So if Rice is healthy and not suspended, we’re talking about the leading guy in one of the NFL’s best offenses. Give me that over a rookie wideout with a massive question mark at quarterback any day. I’m not ready to buy into Bryce Young’s ascent if it means missing out on Rice.