NBA Game of the Day, 2/25: Mavericks vs. Lakers

Tuesday’s NBA slate is a little shorter than normal with only seven games, but we have some good matchups for a TNT Tuesday. The first national TV game features a rematch of last year’s playoff series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic. The Cavaliers have been the best team all season while the Magic are fighting to get back to being the winning team they were to start the season.

The Phoenix Suns, with their season hanging in the balance, visit Memphis to face a Grizzlies team who return home from a road trip. Can the Suns find the form we expected from them in the preseason, or will the Grizzlies continue to roll through the season with another big win?

Those are fascinating games, but the big game of the night is between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers. Here’s my breakdown of the teams and my best bets for the night.

NBA Game of the Day: Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers

Current Line – Lakers -9, 231.5
My Projection – Lakers 118, Mavericks 109
Key Injuries – Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are out. P.J. Washington Jr. is questionable.

Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Lakers Under 231.5

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook/BetMGM/Caesars)

The Mavericks head to Los Angeles to visit the new home of their former star, Luka Dončić. The Mavericks have been playing without him since Christmas Day, so they’re used to having Dončić on their sideline, but are they ready to play against him in another jersey? It’s hard to know how teams will react in situations like this. Will the Mavericks find a way to raise their level so they can show the world not only can win without Dončić but that they can even beat him? Could a good start to the game for Dončić discourage Dallas, leading them to lose by a big margin? I tend to think the latter, but I can’t say the former isn’t possible. I expect Kyrie Irving to try to put on a show going against not only Dončić but LeBron James, another one of Irving’s former teammates. If P.J. Washington Jr. can play, he might be able to slow Dončić down. After years of practicing against him, Washington should what Dončić likes to do on the court and not be caught by surprise. It’s an interesting spot for the Mavericks and one that has me hesitant to back them.

Now, how will this impact the Lakers? Will the team be too focused on getting Luka Dončić as many points as possible to show his former team what they’ve lost? That could impact the effectiveness of the offense and throw the team out of their rhythm. Could Luka get a little teary-eyed himself at the sight of the team he expected to be on when he retired or will he take his revenge with his best performance of the season? The Lakers are rounding into form and have won 14 of their last 19 games to move them up to fourth in the Western Conference. Los Angeles should win this game comfortably. They match up well against Dallas. Neither team has a good center, and the Lakers have three of the four best guard or wing players who will be on the floor. I make them comfortable favorites, but so does the market so we won’t be backing them.

Instead, I think the angle for us to attack is the total which is set well above where I have it. For starters, these are two of the slower teams in the NBA. Both are ranked in the bottom half of the league in pace, and they’ve only gotten slower lately. The Mavericks’ defense has struggled since they lost all of their centers due to injury, but they are still just above the league average for the season. The Lakers started with one of the worst defenses in the NBA, but they have the fourth-best defensive rating since Jan. 1. I think the market has failed to adjust totals for Los Angeles low enough given this recent and seemingly sustainable run of good defending. The total is currently set at 231.5 and I make it 227. There could be enough offensive efficiency to get this game into the 230s but that would require the Lakers to take a big step back on defense. Give the under in this game.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this game and there is one in particular I like a lot.

Luka Dončić Under 48.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook/DraftKings Sportsbook)

As I mentioned, Luka Dončić is playing against the team that scouted him as a teen, made a big trade to acquire during the NBA Draft, and relied on him to be the star to take over for Dirk Nowitzki. What kind of feelings will that produce? Will or be distracting or motivating? I don’t know that, but I do know that this prop total is set much too high. This is close to the numbers we saw for Dončić during last season’s playoffs when he averaged over 40 minutes per game. He’s unlikely to play more than 35 minutes Tuesday, which should make it hard for him to get the usage needed to eclipse this PRA total. Our model at FTN projects Dončić to score 26 points, grab 8.4 rebounds, and dish out 7 assists. That totals to 41.4 which is well below the 48.5 I see across the board at books. Let’s take the under and trust numbers to be more reliable than narratives.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.