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We get to celebrate the end of the week with nine games of NBA action Friday. Most teams are playing for the first time since the All-Star break. That means we must debate the merits of rust versus rest. Was the break used to practice, install new schemes and work on improvements, or was it just a week of relaxation that might have cost players their edge?
Before betting any game, be sure to check the team’s beat reporters for information on what each squad has been up to and even go to star players’ social media accounts to see who’s been practicing and who’s been partying.
There are several good games for us to enjoy, but one stands above the rest to me. The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Houston Rockets in a game that could have big implications in the Western Conference standings at the end of the season. Here are my thoughts on each team and my best bets for the night.
NBA Game of the Day: Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Current Line – Rockets -3.5, 220
My Projection – Rockets 112, Timberwolves 106
Key Injuries – Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle and Fred VanVleet are out. Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert are questionable.
Houston Rockets -3.5
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook/DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Under 108.5
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook/DraftKings Sportsbook)
After a rough start to the season, the Timberwolves are up to seventh place in the Western Conference with a record of 31-25. They were unable to acquire any new talent at the trade deadline, but the team has been able to coalesce after several big moves in the offseason. They have the eighth-best net rating in the league thanks to their sixth-ranked defense, which is solid but a big drop from last season when they had the best defense in the NBA. The Timberwolves have lost their identity and have yet to find a new one. The offense is better but just barely above average. Maybe they can develop some real strengths over the next few months but it’s going to be tough given all the injuries they are dealing with right now. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo have been out for weeks and are just now getting back to practicing on court. Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are all questionable to play despite having just had a week off for the All-Star break. Perhaps things will fall into place, but I don’t expect that to happen any time soon, let alone Friday against a great defensive team.
The Rockets stumbled into the All-Star break. They lost seven of their last nine games but are still fourth in the West with a record of 34-21. Only Alperen Şengün was at the All-Star game, so the rest of the team had time to practice and work on any issues. The Rockets definitely miss Fred VanVleet, who is an underrated defender and a stabilizing force on offense, but there is a lot of talent on this team. More specifically, there is plenty of good defenders who can shut down the Timberwolves, and they will get Jabari Smith Jr. back here. He’ll help the offense with his shooting and make the defense even better. I think the market has adjusted their power rating down too far and also failing to consider how good this matchup is for them. I make them almost six-point favorites, which gives us a nice edge over the market, currently at -3.5. I’ll happily lay that spread and even add another bet on Houston. Most of that edge in my model is on Minnesota’s team total, which is currently 108.5 and a number I make only 106. The Rockets have been great at home keeping opponents from scoring. Their opponents’ team totals are 16-10 to the under when playing in Houston. Give me the Rockets -3.5 and the Timberwolves’ team total under 108.5.
Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this game and there is one in particular I like a lot.
Amen Thompson Over 5.5 Assists
(+130, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Without VanVleet, there’s a need for a ballhandler to create shots for the Rockets, and Amen Thompson has been that guy. In his last eight games without VanVleet, Thompson is averaging close to seven assists per game. He’s a very talented athlete who does everything well except shoot the ball. That makes a perfect candidate to attack the basket and create space for kickout passes. There should be even more opportunities for him to get assists with Jabari Smith Jr. returning. Our model at FTN projects Thompson to dish out six assists and would price this close to -125. At +130, that gives us an expected value of over 25% which makes this a good bet for us to make.
You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.