First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Welcome back to FTN Fantasy’s NBA Power Rankings!
We’ve reached the midway point of the NBA season, a perfect time to reflect on where teams stand — and how they stack up in our power rankings. This week also marks the announcement of NBA All-Star selections, with starters already revealed and reserves coming Thursday. While the All-Star Game itself isn’t always a must-watch event, earning a spot on the roster remains a badge of honor, a recognition of individual excellence that often correlates with team success.
Team performance plays a big role in All-Star selections, especially for starters, and our power rankings reveal how this trend holds true — at least in the East. Four of the five Eastern Conference starters play for teams ranked in the top four of our rankings, and the fifth (Giannis Antetokounmpo) represents a top-10 squad. However, the Western Conference paints a very different picture. Three starters — LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry — hail from teams ranked outside the top 12, while only one (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) plays for a top-five team.
This divergence underscores the challenges of the Western Conference, where even lower-ranked teams remain highly competitive. It also highlights the influence of legacy in All-Star voting. Players like LeBron, KD and Steph are still impactful, with LeBron ranking 41st in our model despite a defensive decline, but their iconic careers make them near-automatic All-Star picks. After all, an All-Star Game without LeBron James feels incomplete — regardless of what the numbers might say.
Every week, we bring you an up-to-the-minute snapshot of the league with our exclusive power rankings, powered by the FTN NBA Betting Model. These rankings adjust for recent results, injuries and news, giving you a dynamic view of the NBA’s shifting landscape. We also track which teams are trending up — and which are trending down.
But this isn’t just about rankings — it’s about giving you the edge. Whether you’re betting on the NBA or simply keeping tabs on your favorite team’s performance, our rankings provide key insights to help you make smarter decisions. Curious to see how we evaluate a specific matchup? Our NBA Betting Model is constantly updated with the latest data, and we highlight the best value picks in our NBA Bet Tracker.
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Key Takeaways
When Is It Time to Worry About Boston?
Repeating as NBA champions is one of the toughest challenges in the league. It’s only happened twice in the 21st century — the Lakers in 2009 and 2010, and the Warriors in 2017 and 2018. Many expect the Boston Celtics to become the third team to accomplish this feat. According to our model, they boast the most talented roster in the league by a significant margin. And early in the season, they looked every bit the dominant force that could repeat as champions. However, since Dec. 19, the Celtics have hit a rough patch, going just 11-9 with a net rating that resembles that of an average team. For a squad with championship aspirations, that’s cause for concern. Fans may hope this dip is just a case of regular-season complacency, with the team flipping the switch when the playoffs arrive. But the regular season still matters — especially when it comes to playoff seeding.
Boston’s grip on the East’s No. 2 seed is slipping. They’re just one game ahead of the surging Knicks, and falling to the third seed could mean losing home-court advantage in a potential second-round matchup. A series that might have felt like a foregone conclusion in Boston’s favor could suddenly become a much closer contest. The Celtics remain the best team on paper, but it’s time for them to refocus and recapture the dominance they showed earlier this season.
Amen Thompson Carrying the Rockets
The Houston Rockets entered this season with tempered expectations, but they’ve shattered even the most optimistic projections. No team has risen more in our power rankings than the Rockets, who began the season at 19th and have climbed an impressive 13 spots to No. 6. While our model may have initially underestimated them — their preseason Vegas win total of 42.5 hinted at that — few analysts pegged them as a legitimate contender. Yet here they are, sitting second in the Western Conference, 17 games over .500 and riding one of the hottest streaks in the league. Rockets fans have a lot of players to thank for this turnaround, but no one deserves more credit than Amen Thompson.
Thompson began the season as the Rockets’ sixth man. Despite the team’s high hopes for the rookie, a returning starting five left him without a role in the opening lineup. However, Jabari Smith Jr.’s injury created an opportunity, and Thompson has made sure there’s no way he’ll be returning to the bench. In his 13 starts, Thompson is averaging an impressive 17 points and 11 rebounds per game while making a game-changing impact on defense.
His breakout moment came Monday night in a statement win over the Boston Celtics. Facing stars like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Thompson emerged as the best player on the court, showcasing poise, energy and all-around dominance. His impact isn’t just anecdotal — our model now ranks Thompson as the 43rd-best player in the league, with his stock likely to climb even higher as the season progresses.
The Rockets were expected to take a step forward this season, but Amen Thompson’s rapid emergence as a star has turned them into a team no one saw coming.
The Knicks Pick Up a Statement Win over Memphis
Monday night’s matchup between the Knicks and Grizzlies was expected to be a thriller. Memphis entered Madison Square Garden as one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a six-game winning streak. With a 3.5-point spread and Ja Morant poised for a big night, most anticipated a close battle. Instead, the Knicks turned it into a blowout, dominating from start to finish. Their second-half performance was particularly impressive, outscoring the Grizzlies 83-54 and sending a clear message to the rest of the league.
This win highlights why our power rankings have been so high on the Knicks all season, consistently placing them in the top five. After a brief rough patch a few weeks ago, the Knicks are back on track and looking every bit like the contender their roster suggests. With two All-Star starters in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, they’ve earned respect league-wide. Big wins like this one further validate their championship aspirations.
Nuggets Return to the Top 5
We entered the season with Denver ranked as the No. 5 team in the league, thanks to their championship pedigree and the presence of Nikola Jokić. However, a slow start from Jamal Murray and injuries to key contributors led to an underwhelming first couple of months. For a brief stretch, the Nuggets fell out of the top tier in our rankings and seemed to lack the consistency they showcased the last few seasons.
But when a team has the best basketball player on the planet in Nikola Jokić, they’re never out of the conversation for long. The three-time MVP has been as dominant as ever, carrying Denver back into FTN’s top five and reestablishing them as one of the league’s most dangerous teams. With Murray finding his rhythm and key role players returning to form, the Nuggets are rounding into shape just in time for the stretch run.
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