Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Training camps have started, are starting and will start around the NFL, meaning the NFL and fantasy football season is almost upon us. And while performance in the preseason only matters so much, one thing fantasy managers definitely need to watch through training camp and the preseason is the battle for playing time.
This time a year ago, we broke down the training camp position battles to watch, and a lot of times, the winner didn’t matter that much, but also … Jake Ferguson won the Cowboys TE battle and finished as TE9 in fantasy. Raheem Mostert emerged over Jeff Wilson and was RB5. D’Andre Swift over Rashaad Penny, Brian Robinson over Antonio Gibson, Baker Mayfield over Kyle Trask, Sam Howell over Jacoby Brissett… just being in a position battle in training camp doesn’t mean the winner can’t become a big fantasy factor in the season, and so as fantasy managers we need to stay on top of those battles.
So we’re taking a look at the position battles to watch in training camp. Sometimes, there’s an incumbent who doesn’t have a firm hold on the starting job. Sometimes, there’s a rookie pushing for a gig. Sometimes, it’s an underwhelming group of options. Regardless, whoever grabs the job has a shot in fantasy, and we need to know it.
Today: Tight ends
Follow along with the series: QB | RB | WR
Training Camp Position Battles to Watch: Tight End
Tight end is a smaller section that the other positions — there just aren’t nearly as many situations where we don’t know who the No. 1 tight end is but whoever gets it could be relevant. So this will be the shortest part of this series.
Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers vs. Michael Mayer
Everyone knew Brock Bowers would go in the first half of the first round. He was linked to teams like the Jets, Colts, Chargers and others where he could have come in and immediately locked down the tight end role and been the team’s No. 1 or 2 overall target. Instead, the Raiders swooped in and took him at 13 despite already having the No. 35 overall pick from 2023, Michael Mayer, at the position. So we need to see in camp whether the Raiders are shoving Mayer aside and using Bowers as a stereotypical tight end, or whether Bowers is going to be one of those guys who is a tight end in name only and more of a receiver, keeping Mayer as the primary tight end. Bowers will be fantasy relevant either way, but there’s a path to Mayer mattering as well.
Green Bay Packers
Luke Musgrave vs. Tucker Kraft
The drafting community has made its decision, taking Luke Musgrave at TE17 and Tucker Kraft TE34 in early ADP. But as I pointed out in the Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions on the Packers, I’m less convinced — Kraft is a better blocker, which the Packers need, and more of a short-range target, which the Packers don’t have otherwise. Maybe that’s wishcasting, but either way, we’ll get an idea of whether I’m right during camp, and if I am right, Kraft could be one of the bigger draft values in 2024.
New York Giants
Cody Bellinger vs. Theo Johnson
Darren Waller’s semi/quasi/kinda surprise retirement threw the Giants’ TE situation into flux. They clearly had an idea that might be coming, considering the fourth-round draft pick they spent on Theo Johnson out of Penn State in this year’s draft despite having a lot of roster needs. There was a path to Johnson being interesting, and maybe there still is, but Johnson landed on the PUP list Tuesday at the start of camp, which sets him behind. Bellinger is in line to be the TE1 in New York, which gives him fringe value, at least until Johnson gets healthy and shows something.
Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet vs. Gerald Everett
This is less “Who is the No. 1?” and more “How much will the No. 2 impede on the No. 1?” Cole Kmet is the TE1 in Chicago. But with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze all around to soak up targets at receiver, and now with Gerald Everett in town to get some TE targets, Kmet — who has averaged 84 targets the last three years — is going to have a really hard time getting as much work in 2024. In training camp, keep an eye on how much use Everett gets. If he’s in town as yet another receiving option for a rising offense, Kmet falls off the radar. If he’s just a big name who doesn’t play much or even gets cut, Kmet could have fringe value.
