Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Training camps have started, are starting and will start around the NFL, meaning the NFL and fantasy football season is almost upon us. And while performance in the preseason only matters so much, one thing fantasy managers definitely need to watch through training camp and the preseason is the battle for playing time.
This time a year ago, we broke down the training camp position battles to watch, and a lot of times, the winner didn’t matter that much, but also … Jake Ferguson won the Cowboys TE battle and finished as TE9 in fantasy. Raheem Mostert emerged over Jeff Wilson and was RB5. D’Andre Swift over Rashaad Penny, Brian Robinson over Antonio Gibson, Baker Mayfield over Kyle Trask, Sam Howell over Jacoby Brissett… just being in a position battle in training camp doesn’t mean the winner can’t become a big fantasy factor in the season, and so as fantasy managers we need to stay on top of those battles.
So we’re taking a look at the position battles to watch in training camp. Sometimes, there’s an incumbent who doesn’t have a firm hold on the starting job. Sometimes, there’s a rookie pushing for a gig. Sometimes, it’s an underwhelming group of options. Regardless, whoever grabs the job has a shot in fantasy, and we need to know it.
Today: Quarterbacks
Follow along with the series: RB | WR | TE
Training Camp Position Battles to Watch: Quarterback
Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy vs. Sam Darnold
The Vikings traded up one spot on draft night to make sure they got J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan. But they had already signed Sam Darnold, and at only 21, McCarthy is not the kind of quarterback a team necessarily needs to rush into the starting role. There’s already word out of Minnesota that Darnold is the QB1 entering camp and that McCarthy “definitely” won’t start in Week 1 and probably not in the first quarter of the season. Darnold, the third overall pick in 2018, barely played in San Francisco last year, but merely being in Kyle Shanahan’s orbit got him some buzz. It sounds like he’ll get a shot at least to open the season, and how long he keeps his grip on the gig depends on what he does with it.
New England Patriots
Jacoby Brissett vs. Drake Maye
At this point, this one might only barely be a battle at this point — all signs out of New England point to Jacoby Brissett having a hold on the No. 1 job, with the Patriots content to let third overall pick Maye take some time to develop as the backup. Brissett has shown to be one of the league’s best No. 2 quarterbacks the last few years, and being the best No. 2 quarterback means you’ll sometimes be one of the lesser No. 1s, but Brissett has developed into a much better quarterback than he was in his first New England tenure.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix vs. Zach Wilson vs. Jarrett Stidham
The Broncos have three quarterbacks with very different resumes contending for the starting job. There’s the rookie first-rounder in Bo Nix who comes into the league with plenty of hype. There’s the former high-profile second overall pick in Zach Wilson who has seen the shine come completely off but is actually only six months older than Nix. And then there’s the underdog in Jarrett Stidham, the former fourth-round pick who has started four games in five seasons, all in end-of-season mop-up roles.
The Broncos would certainly like Nix to jump out and seize the job straight away. He’s a rookie, yes, but he’s also 24 years old, so you want to know what you have in the guy sooner rather than later. If Nix doesn’t get the starting gig, it means either he crashed and burned in camp or that one of the guys (likely Wilson) came out and dominated. Ultimately, the Broncos’ starting quarterback in 2024 isn’t likely to be a big fantasy factor, but the fortunes of guys like Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams hang in the balance.
Las Vegas Raiders
Gardner Minshew vs. Aidan O’Connell
If the winner of the Broncos QB battle isn’t likely to matter in fantasy, the winner of the Raiders battle is all but a guarantee not to do so. In our FTN Fantasy staff consensus rankings, Gardner Minshew is QB34, while Aidan O’Connell is QB36 — and of course there are only 32 teams. As of mid July, we certainly don’t know who will get the job, with Minshew slated for 154.1 fantasy points in our fantasy projections and O’Connell for 109.1. How does it matter? Well, on throws of 10-19 yards last year, Minshew had a 6:4 TD:INT ratio compared to a 1:2 for O’Connell. On deep balls (20-plus yards), Minshew’s ratio falls to 3:3 and O’Connell’s climbs to 5:2. Intermediate passer rating: Minshew 90.6, O’Connell 71.7; deep passer rating: Minshew 81.9, O’Connell 94.0. The deeper a pass is, the less predictive the stats. So Minshew’s numbers are likely more reliable, and that should give Minshew an advantage, and Davante Adams and (especially) Jakobi Meyers would benefit.
Honorable Mention
These battles might not be that heated, but the backup names have at least been floated, so they warrant a small note.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields
It’s hard to imagine Wilson doesn’t have some reasonable assurances of being the No. 1 in Pittsburgh, but both quarterbacks come in with flaws and questions about their upside, and Fields is popularly considered the better fit for Arthur Smith’s offense.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones vs. Drew Lock
Jones should be well out in pole position for the starting job, but between his recovery from injury and how rough he looked before getting hurt last year — not to mention the rumors that Lock was promised the chance to compete when he was signed — we need to at least monitor the situation.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith vs. Sam Howell
There were some murmurs, quickly silenced, that the Seahawks traded for Howell to maybe take over for Smith. That’s very hard to believe, but Howell did at least have the fantasy resume last year (QB12 in fantasy), even if his actual on-the-field play was much more lacking (No. 36 out of 45 qualified quarterbacks in PFF passing grade). Still, this is Geno’s job to lose.
