Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Green Bay Packers.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Green Bay Packers
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Romeo Doubs
Kelley: MarShawn Lloyd
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Jayden Reed
Kelley: Jayden Reed
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Jordan Love Is the QB1
Kelley: Tucker Kraft Outscores Luke Musgrave in Points Per Game
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Romeo Doubs
Romeo Doubs is one of the better discounts in Green Bay’s offense, as he checks in with an ADP of 106.3 at Underdog. As WR54 off the board on average, he’s worth your time after the seventh round. The Packers’ wideout finished tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with eight. Doubs led Green Bay with 18 red zone targets, including nine inside the 10-yard line. In the two playoff games last season, Doubs racked up 234 yards on 10 catches and he scored a touchdown. No other wide receiver in Green Bay had more than four catches or 35 yards. It was Doubs who led the Packers with 12 targets, three more than Tucker Kraft, who finished second. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks all averaged fewer than five fantasy points per game in the playoffs, while Doubs averaged 17.2. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but Doubs is the cheapest of the big three wideouts and he’s the go-to option for Love in the red zone. Overall, Doubs had a team-high 23.53% air yard share and 17.11% target share. Complete your GB best ball stacks with Doubs.
Kelley: MarShawn Lloyd
Josh Jacobs has been a very good rusher over the course of his career, though you could easily argue he’s been a bit overrated — he’s been at 4.0 yards per carry or lower in three of his five seasons, including a career-low 3.5 last year. But even if you say he’s the version of himself that finished with PFF’s top rushing grade in 2022, it’s fairly inarguable that he’s been a drain as a receiver in his NFL career — he only has one season with a PFF receiving grade over 60.0, and even that was 64.8, and he’s the only player with 1,000-plus career touches and 0 receiving scores who has played since 2014:
MarShawn Lloyd wasn’t a prolific receiver in college, with only 34 receptions in three years, but the draft community was nearly universal in saying he had untapped receiving potential with quality hands. The Packers, who have been more reluctant to commit to a single back than any team on record for a generation now, used their third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Lloyd. He’s a good Jacobs insurance policy, but also, he’s the most likely back here to be a contributor as a receiver, and you can get him at RB44 in drafts.
Busts
Meaney: Jayden Reed
Reed’s price has become cheaper as we inch closer to Week 1, but there’s no reason for him to be going so much higher than the other wide receivers in this offense. I love his game and the Packers used him in multiple ways last season, but there’s too much going on in the offense to feel good about his price tag. Watson remains a big question mark, but his ceiling is sky-high. Dontayvion Wicks popped in the second half of the season, and the Packers have two tight ends who are deserving of targets. Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Marquise Brown and Chris Godwin are all wideouts in the same range as Reed, and I’d rather have them all.
Kelley: Jayden Reed
The drafting community is taking Jayden Reed first among the Packers receivers in drafts. And sure, the odds say he’ll probably be the No. 1 — he was the WR25 last year, with no other Packer receiver better than WR36, and Reed did it as a rookie. But is the confidence warranted? By ADP, Reed is WR34, Christian Watson WR44, Romeo Doubs WR54, Dontayvion Wicks WR58. Check out how their target totals by week went last year:
There’s no trend there. Maybe you see that Doubs spiked early and petered out late, but the counter to that is that he’s the only one who even had one game of more than 10 targets, and he had two. Reed should probably be the first Packers receiver taken, but that is unclear enough that I’d rather pass on him altogether and take one of the other ones later.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Jordan Love Is the QB1
I couldn’t have been more wrong about Christian Watson, but I was in on the Packers’ offense last season, and I’m in again. I have a hard time investing in some of their passing options, because I think the ball will be spread out evenly and there won’t be much consistency. So with that said, give me all the Jordan Love. The Packers’ QB had 4,159 passing yards (64.2% CMP) and a 32:11 TD:INT ratio in his first full season in the NFL. He did that despite having the youngest WR/TE room in the NFL. All of his weapons have another year to grow with Love in the offense, so it’s possible we see an even better season from Love. I also think they got stronger on the ground with the addition of Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd. There were a few games where the Packers had nothing in the run game when Aaron Jones was on the sidelines. Love may not have the same type of rushing upside as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, but he ran for a modest 247 yards last season and had four rushing touchdowns. There’s a touch of a floor to go with his high ceiling.
Kelley: Tucker Kraft Outscores Luke Musgrave in Points Per Game
I had to add the “points per game” caveat here because Tucker Kraft is dealing with a torn pectoral muscle that is limiting his offseason. He’s expected to be ready for training camp, so he might not miss any time, but I’m giving myself the out in case he gets delayed. But other than that, give me Kraft over Musgrave in 2024. First, take a look at their rookie 2023 seasons — Kraft bested Musgrave in yards, touchdowns, fantasy points and yards per receptions. Obviously, part of that is the fact that Musgrave got hurt and missed six games, while Kraft played all 17 games. Granted. But once Musgrave was back, he had 1, 3 and 4 targets in that Week 18 game and the Packers’ two playoff games, compared to 3, 3 and 6 for Kraft — Kraft played 156 snaps in those games, Musgrave played 43.
On top of that, think of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Packers offense. As noted above, this team has a wealth of receiving options, but also as noted above, it has a dearth of options out of the backfield. And finally, the team probably needs some line help — it’s still a good line, but the floor is lower than it’s been in a generation. If the team needs something in the passing game, it’s a dumpoff type of target. And if that target can block a little, even better. Well hey, last year, Kraft put up a 70.3 PFF pass-blocking grade (16th among 40 qualified tight ends), compared to 45.7 for Musgrave (37th). And as for the dumpoff type of target … Musgrave’s average depth of target last year was 7.4 yards. Kraft’s was 5.3. If the Packers need a tight end who can block and then catch a short pass, that’s Kraft over Musgrave 10 times out of 10.
