MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Los Angeles Chargers.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Los Angeles Chargers
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Gus Edwards
Kelley: Ladd McConkey
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Justin Herbert
Kelley: Justin Herbert
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Ladd McConkey Finishes as a Top-15 WR
Kelley: Kimani Vidal Leads the Backfield in PPR Points
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Gus Edwards
Jim Harbaugh wasted no time bringing in Greg Roman as the Chargers’ OC. The two coached together at Stanford and with the San Francisco 49ers from 2011 to 2014. Those Niners and Ravens teams under Roman ran the football, and that’s what I fully expect the Chargers to do. Roman no doubt had a say in the signings of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, who he coached in Baltimore. Dobbins hasn’t been able to stay on the field over the past couple of seasons, and rookie Kimani Vidal is the only other threat to steal touches from the Gus Bus with Austin Ekeler no longer around. I like the path for Vidal, and he’s a physical downhill runner, but he was also a sixth-round pick. Edwards should be the lead and should get goal-line work, assuming he stays healthy. Edwards isn’t flashy and won’t catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, but he has a healthy 4.9 YPC on 699 career carries. He’s run for 700 yards in four of his five seasons and is coming off a campaign where he touched career highs in carries (198), rushing yards (810) and touchdowns (13). He won’t sniff 13 scores again, but he could easily set career best marks in carries and rushing yards. The thing I like the most after the opportunity for volume is the price. Edwards is starting to rise up draft boards, but he’s still going outside the top 115 picks and the 36th back on average. He’s the perfect target for Zero or Hero RB managers outside of Round 8 and 9.
Kelley: Ladd McConkey
I did not write our 2024 team pass-catcher rankings where the Chargers’ group of receivers and tight ends came in 32nd, but if I had, my very first step would have been to make a spreadsheet 1-32 and put the Chargers in that 32 slot. It’s not that this profiles as the worst group of pass-catchers in the league; it’s that it profiles as the worst group of pass-catchers in the league by a lot. Yes, maybe Quentin Johnston can turn around last year’s rookie-year bust. Maybe Joshua Palmer can have a fourth-year breakout. But someone has to catch passes in Los Angeles, even if there aren’t as many of those passes in 2024 as there has been in the past (see my Busts section). And this year’s second-round rookie, Ladd McConkey out of Georgia, is that candidate. Our FTN Fantasy projections have him slated for 100 targets and 800 yards, roughly in line with guys like Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers. But the thing with McConkey is his situation gives him way more room for ceiling than floor. As long as he stays healthy, McConkey should be pretty safe for that sort of target total, just because there isn’t anyone else. But if he’s a stud, he could blow past these numbers and carry a massive target share. So maybe he finishes in the range of WR45 (his current ADP), but if you tell me his finish is off that by 10 slots or more, I would take the better instead of the worst 100 times out of 100.
Busts
Meaney: Justin Herbert
By now you’re aware Justin Herbert lost Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett from his offense in the offseason. That’s 210 catches, 2,339 yards and 12 touchdowns from a year ago, no longer around. As stated earlier, I expect the Chargers to be a run first-offense. They took OL Joe Alt with their fifth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He’ll help Herbert who has seen the second-most pressures since he entered the league in 2020. Alt will also help the run game. The Chargers drafted wideouts Ladd McConkey (love), Brenden Rice and Cornelius Johnson, plus they have promising sophomore receiver Quentin Johnston, who they took in the first round last season. However, it’s a young wide receiver room and Hebert hasn’t been a strong fantasy asset since his second overall finish at the position in 2021. Herbert finished 12th in fantasy points per game last season and 17th in 2022. He’s currently getting drafted as the 17th quarterback off the board and even that feels too high. The Chargers’ QB has all the tools, but I think he’ll be a frustrating fantasy season for owners, given the lack of weapons and change in offense.
Kelley: Justin Herbert
As was the case in our Patriots Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions, there aren’t many options for busts along the Chargers roster. There is no running back going higher than 38th in early ADP, no wide receiver higher than 45th, no tight end higher than 39th. That leaves us with Justin Herbert, and even his ADP has fallen to 14th, his first year lower than QB8 in ADP since his rookie year. The reasons for that fall are clear — the Chargers have likely the worst receiving corps in the league, they built up the offensive line and signed running backs this offseason, and the new 1-2 punch of offensive gurus on staff (head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman). And … we might actually have the rare undercorrection. Herbert has averaged at least 35 pass attempts a game every year of his career, including 39-plus each of his first three years. The Chargers peaked at a 41% rush play percentage (No. 16) in his 2020 rookie year, and they’ve been between 34 and 39% since (between 27th and 31st). With Harbaugh and Roman at the helm, there’s every reason to expect that rate to climb up near (or even over) 50%, which mathematically means Herbert’s pass attempts would have to drop by between 15 and 20% (if not more). He can be just as good as ever, and that kind of drop in pass attempts would still wreck his fantasy stock, especially given Herbert has never been a big runner (career high of 302 yards), and Gus Edwards profiles as the team’s likely goal-line threat.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Ladd McConkey Finishes as a Top-15 WR
Everyone’s looking for the next Puka Nacua steal in fantasy drafts, and he probably doesn’t exist. Nacua was a fantasy star last season and wasn’t drafted in most leagues. McConkey is getting drafted just inside the top 40 at wide receiver, so there isn’t really a discount. Having said that, my bold prediction is that McConkey breaks Nacua’s rookie record from a year ago (105 catches and 1,486 receiving yards) and finishes inside the top 15 at WR. Ladd will open up as the Chargers’ starting slot wideout and he could be Herbert’s number one target from day one. McConkey is an excellent route runner who can work on all three labels of the field. He has strong hands, speed for days and he can make you miss in the open field. Again, there’s a lot of targets gone from this offense, and there are some major questions about some of the other weapons currently in Herbert’s room.
Kelley: Kimani Vidal Leads the Backfield in PPR Points
Consider Kimani Vidal my 1A sleeper pick for the Chargers, but putting him here lets me highlight both Vidal and Ladd McConkey. Consider Vidal’s competition in the Chargers backfield. There’s Gus Edwards, 29 now and just off his first 800-yard season (and even then at 810) with no season of more than 13 targets. There’s J.K. Dobbins, who has played in nine games over the last three years and has to show he even can play football again. And there are Isaiah Spiller, Jaret Patterson and Elijah Dotson, who all spent most or all of last season in the Chargers organization and combined for 102 rushing yards. As a sixth-round rookie, Vidal is no sure thing (Edwards and/or if-he’s-healthy Dobbins) likely open as the No. 1), but he topped 1,600 rushing yards last year at Troy. He tested well at the combine, and given the Chargers didn’t draft a back earlier than the sixth round and are going with the age of Edwards and the massive injury risk of Dobbins, Vidal could easily rise to the top of the heap in a hurry.
