Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Houston Texans.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Houston Texans
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Joe Mixon
Kelley: Jawhar Jordan
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Tank Dell
Kelley: C.J. Stroud
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Dalton Schultz Hits Waiver Wires By Week 3
Kelley: Stefon Diggs Is Closer to the Texans WR4 Than WR2
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Joe Mixon
It’s hard to find a sleeper in Houston as most of their weapons are going inside the first 70 picks. The RB15 (ADP 44.45) price for Joe Mixon in high stakes leagues seems fair, but he has top-10 upside at the position. Mixon is fresh off an RB5 overall finish. In fact, Mixon has finished RB5, RB12 and RB3 over the past three seasons. There really shouldn’t be any change in production with the move from Cincinnati to Houston. We have C.J. Stroud first in passing attempts and passing yards in our projections, but the Bengals ranked second in Pass% last season, and Mixon was still able to rack up 1,034 yards on the ground. Mixon will also play behind a better offensive line in Houston than Cincinnati. Regardless, the 27-year-old has never really been efficient (4.1 YPC for career), yet he has four 1,000-yard seasons over the past six years. He also has 154 catches over his last three seasons. The backfield is his, which includes all of the goal-line touches on what will be a great offensive team. Let’s keep in mind how strong Devin Singletary looked when he received all the touches toward the end of 2023. Mixon isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a rock-solid RB2 and he’s good enough to be your Hero RB if you want to start WR/WR.
Kelley: Jawhar Jordan
Obviously, this is a deep sleeper. But let’s take a look at the Texans RB depth chart:
- Joe Mixon: Mixon turns 28 next week, but he’s averaged under 4.0 yards per carry over the last five years (3.99) and just put up the worst full-season PFF rushing grade of his career. He was a cut candidate in Cincinnati the last 2-3 years before they dealt him to Houston. He was tied for 52nd of 63 qualified backs in yards after contact per attempt.
- Dameon Pierce: After a surprise rookie season in 2022, with nearly 1,000 yards in only 13 games, Pierce was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy last year, not even getting to 3 yards per carry (2.9) and being benched for Devin Singletary
- Dare Ogunbowale: 30 years old and has never topped 62 carries in a season.
- J.J. Taylor, British Brooks, Troy Hairston, Andrew Beck: Two fullbacks, an undrafted free agent from 2024, and an undrafted free agent from 2020 who has 156 yards in four years.
- Jawhar Jordan: Rookie sixth-rounder who profiles as a fit in the outside zone (a la the Kyle Shanahan style that Bobby Slowik brought to Houston), and enough chops as a returner to keep him on the active roster.
The Texans certainly want Mixon to be the featured back in 2024, and they’re going forward like he’s the guy. But if Mixon’s age and deterioration prove to be too much, what’s the alternative? Pierce has already failed, most everyone else is a never-was, and Brooks only had 154 touches in six years in college because of injury. Jordan is an extreme sleeper, but in deep leagues, he’s worth a few end-of-draft sprinkles.
Busts
Meaney: Tank Dell
Tank Dell is getting selected as the 34th wide receiver off the board as we creep closer to August. The fact he’s getting drafted at times or so close to Stefon Diggs is shocking to me. There’s really no reason to see three Houston wideouts inside the first 34 picks of drafts. I don’t believe Diggs is washed; he was just phased out of Buffalo’s offense last season. After Nico Collins, one of Diggs or Dell will fail to return value, and I’ll lean with Dell, who I believe we’ll be third on the team in targets and catches. I love the player, but there’s just too much going on and I don’t believe the volume will be there. I understand the reach in best ball because Dell has 709 yards on just 47 catches (15.1 per catch). It’s criminal that George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin and Terry McLaurin are all going after Dell.
Kelley: C.J. Stroud
In 2018, Baker Mayfield was a rookie. He didn’t start until Week 4, ultimately playing all but two games, but then he went on to break the then-record for rookie touchdown passes with 27, including four games of 3 or more. He finished as the QB16 that year, and then his team went out and got a superstar receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. that offseason. The hype coming off Mayfield’s rookie year combined with a rising offense and a star addition made him fantasy hypnotism, and he shot up to QB4 in ADP the next year (which, yes, was ludicrous at the time).
C.J. Stroud is not a perfect analogue to Baker Mayfield, but he played all but two games as a rookie and was a sensation, finishing QB11 in fantasy. He threw for 23 touchdowns (4 fewer than Mayfield) but offset that with 3 rushing scores compared to Mayfield’s 0 as a rookie. His offense added Stefon Diggs this offseason, and Stroud’s excitement combined with Diggs’ arrival has him at QB5 in ADP. Is there room for Stroud to get there? It’s hard to see. He isn’t much of a rusher (11.1 rushing yards per game), which caps his ceiling. Stroud would need to improve his passing yardage by several hundred (up near 5,000) and/or shoot his touchdown total from 23 into the 30 range to return value at that ADP. He appears to be a great quarterback, but he could be that and still come up short of this ADP.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Dalton Schultz Hits Waiver Wires By Week 3
I could have gone with Dalton Schultz as a bust, but his TE13 price tag at pick 130 on average isn’t something that will hurt you. However, it’s not needed. I’d make it a priority to get one of the top nine tight ends, and if you’re playing in a TE premium league, skip over Schultz for Pat Freiermuth, T.J. Hockenson, Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin or Isaiah Likely. As mentioned above, there are too many mouths to feed in Houston. Schultz will probably take the biggest hit with the addition to Diggs, especially inside the red zone.
Kelley: Stefon Diggs Is Closer to the Texans WR4 Than WR2
My initial bold prediction for the Texans was that Nico Collins would be the only fantasy starter in the receiver room, but I can’t go that far because Tank Dell was a stud before his injury last year, and if he returns healthy, he’ll be a fantasy factor as well. But I simply don’t think the team can support three fantasy-relevant receivers, and Stefon Diggs will be the odd man out there. Diggs is coming off his worst season since leaving the Vikings, and it was famously a pretty steep dropoff — through Week 9 he was WR3 in PPR, but from Week 10 on he was WR44. He averaged 7.8 receptions, 10.8 targets and 92.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game in the first half, then 4.6 receptions, 7.9 targets, 43.6 yards and 0.1 touchdowns in the second. Yes, the change in offensive coordinator in Buffalo mattered there, but it’s worth considering where Diggs, now 30, is over the hill as a star receiver. Immediately after trading for him, the Texans nixed the rest of his contract after 2024. Sure, maybe that will motivate Diggs in his pursuit of another payday, but also, maybe the Texans weren’t excited about him as a long-term investment.
