The Most Unexpected Losses of the 2024 NFL Season

Win probability isn’t an exact science. It’s based on historical situations, and of course no two situations are the same. Grains of salt abound with any of them.

But they sure are fun to look at.

Sarah Langs has made a whole meme of the roller-coaster ride that is in-game win probability in baseball. Because sometimes it’s nice to just have fun. And today, I’m going back through the 2024 NFL season to find the most unlikely losses of the season. These were the true “Wheeee”s of the year, the games where things were all but decided until something wild happened. According to ESPN’s win probability graphs, there were 13 games in the 2024 NFL season where the losing team had reached at least 90% win probability, and we’ll count them down.

There are no grand takeaways here, no huge lessons to be learned. Maybe we see how close a team came to a different season, but even that doesn’t apply much to the future. This is just “Whoa, would you look at that.”

The Most Unlikely Losses of the 2024 NFL Season

13. San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks, Week 11

90.3% win probability

SANTA CLARA, CA - OCTOBER 23: San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) is tackled from behind during the NFL professional football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on October 23, 2022 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire) — SANTA CLARA, CA – OCTOBER 23: San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) is tackled from behind during the NFL professional football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on October 23, 2022 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)

With 3:10 left in the fourth quarter, a penalty on Seahawks DT Johnathan Hankins gave the 49ers a first down near midfield. They were already leading 17-13, and any realistic viewer would have assumed they’d get at least a field goal on the drive to take a seven-point lead. Instead, the 49ers went 1-yard loss, incomplete pass, 5-yard completion, and then they punted from the Seattle 42 for a touchback. With 80 yards to go, 2:38 to play and one timeout to work with, Geno Smith marched them down the field, passing for 51 yards and scrambling for another 29 to take the lead with 12 seconds left.

12. Baltimore Ravens vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Week 2

90.6% win probability

Just about anyone would call this the most unlikely win of the season (I had the Ravens in my Survivor pool, so I’m a little bitter). Early in the fourth quarter, the Ravens had a 10-point lead, 23-13. The Raiders had the ball, but after a penalty to start the drive, Gardner Minshew II took a 10-yard loss on a sack, setting Las Vegas up for second-and-20 from their own 35-yard line. 26- and 30-yard completions to Davante Adams later, the Raiders were inside the 10, where they ultimately kicked a field goal. The rest of the fourth quarter went:

Ravens 3-and-out
Raiders 70-yard TD drive
Ravens 3-and-out
Raiders field goal

And like that, the Ravens suddenly fell to 0-2. (Things got better from there.)

11. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens, Week 5

91.1% win probability

This one was wild, because the point at which the Bengals had their highest win probability probably wasn’t even the point at which most people were sure they’d win. They led 38-28 with just under 9 minutes left in the fourth quarter before the Ravens scored a touchdown and a field goal to tie the game. Even with that, the Bengals got back to 78.0% win probability in overtime after a Derrick Henry fumble gave Cincinnati the ball at the Baltimore 38. The Bengals gained only 3 yards and missed a 53-yard field goal, though, and the Ravens marched down and ultimately won on a field goal of their own. The Bengals should have won this game like three different times … and if they had, they’d have made the playoffs.

10. New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts, Week 13

91.3% win probability

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 01: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) reacts after scoring a touchdown during a NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Indianapolis Colts on October 1, 2023 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire) — INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 01: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) reacts after scoring a touchdown during a NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Indianapolis Colts on October 1, 2023 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

You’d be forgiven if this one — a matchup between a total non-contending Patriots team and a come-on-who-are-we-kidding-they-aren’t-contending Colts team — didn’t stick in your memory. But with 4:02 left in the fourth quarter, Anthony Richardson completed a 7-yard pass. Which is all well and good, except that it was third-and-10 at the time, and fourth-and-3 from your own 40 isn’t the highest-probability situation. But despite his receivers’ best efforts (there were a shocking number of drops on the drive), Richardson kept it going, ultimately throwing a 3-yard touchdown with 12 seconds left and rushing in a 2-point conversion with 12 seconds left.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins, Week 1

92.3% win probability

It’s rare teams reach 90%-plus win probability before the fourth quarter, simply because so much can happen with a lot of time left on the clock. But in Week 1, the Jaguars led a surprisingly (at the time) flaccid Dolphins team 17-7 and had the ball on Miami’s 30 after a facemask penalty. They looked safe to go up at least 13 if not more. Exactly one play later, though, Travis Etienne Jr. fumbled the ball. And exactly one play after that, Tyreek Hill went for an 80-yard score. It was about as quick a turnaround as you could imagine.

8. Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings, Week 13

92.5% win probability

The Cardinals inspired a discourse! With 4:17 left in the fourth, Kyler Murray hit Trey McBride for a 9-yard completion, giving the team first-and-goal from the Minnesota 5. They were up 19-16 at the time and looked very safe to win. After two penalties (including a loss of down) got them back to the 25, back-to-back completions got them to fourth-and-goal from the 4. Their choices there: Go for it and either score to go up 10 or pin the Vikings at the 4, or kick essentially a gimme field goal to go up 6, eliminating a Vikings field goal from the risk analysis but incentivizing the Vikings to go for the touchdown and beat them outright. The Cardinals chose the field goal, everyone on Twitter said kicking a field goal to go up 6 is a bad decision, and the Vikings scored the touchdown to win.

7. New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks, Week 13

92.7% win probability

FOXBOROUGH, MA - OCTOBER 27: New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) directs a receiver during a game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets on October 27, 2024, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire) — FOXBOROUGH, MA – OCTOBER 27: New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) directs a receiver during a game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets on October 27, 2024, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

This is about as early as reasonably possible to reach a 90%-plus win probability. It was 8:35 left in the second quarter when the Jets got first-and-10 from the Seattle 12. They were already up 21-7 and seemed all but certain to get to 24-7 or even 28-7. Instead, after an incompletion, Aaron Rodgers threw a touchdown pass to Leonard Williams … which is bad, because Leonard Williams is a Seattle defensive end, and the touchdown was 92 yards in the opposite direction. A game that was very close to having a three-score gap suddenly had a one-score difference. From 21-7, the Seahawks outscored the Jets 19-0 the rest of the way.

(Also, man, Week 13 was weird. Three games from that week.)

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons, Week 5

93.0% win probability

It was 22 seconds left, and it was the third different time on this drive the Bucs had crested 90%. The Falcons had the ball at midfield, down 3, with no timeouts, and had to spike the ball to stop the clock to get to third-and-1. The Bucs had to feel good, but they did not need to feel great. And after a 6-yard completion for a first down and a 14-yarder (with a couple incompletions in there), Younghoe Koo kicked a 52-yard field goal as time expired to tie the game. And then in overtime, the Falcons marched down the field in four plays to end things.

My biggest takeaway here? Having third-and-1 from midfield down 3 does not feel like it should be 7.0% win probability. I question the model here.

5. San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals, Week 5

93.2% win probability

This game was 10-10 early in the second quarter before the 49ers stepped on the gas, with two field goals and a touchdown before halftime to go into intermission at 23-10. They were 2-2 and still seemed like one of the Super Bowl favorites, so it felt like a second half of running out the clock, a feeling that only intensified when the Cardinals went three-and-out on the first drive after the half. Even after a field goal to make it 23-13, the 49ers were up 10 and had first-and-10 at the Arizona 14 with 5 minutes left in the third. But they turned it over on downs, Arizona scored (and got the 2-point!), they turned it over on a fumble, Arizona kicked a field goal, and they threw a pick. It was an ugly, ugly end of game.

4. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders, Week 16

93.3% win probability

Even with Jalen Hurts leaving with a concussion in the first quarter, the Eagles got to the end of the third quarter with a 27-14 lead over their division rival Commanders. At 25 seconds left in the third, Jayden Daniels threw an incomplete pass to Terry McLaurin that set up fourth-and-11 on the Philly 41. But Daniels scrambled for 29 yards to get a first. The drive that looked done ended in a touchdown, and the Commanders would score two more in the fourth (along with two Eagles field goals) to win by 3.

3. San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams, Week 3

95.5% win probability

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 25: Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) in a game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. (Photo by Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 25: Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) in a game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. (Photo by Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire)

Wild that a team had two of the top five most unlikely losses of the season, but the 49ers were cursed for most of 2024. In this one, they led the Rams 24-17 and had the ball with 5 minutes left. But a drive that was at first-and-10 at the San Francisco 45 only made it 18 more yards before Jake Moody missed a long field goal attempt. Kyren Williams would score (his third of the game!) on the next drive to tie the game, and after a San Francisco punt, the Rams made it 31 yards on two plays to kick the game-winning field goal with 2 seconds left on the clock.

2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons, Week 2

97.6% win probability

Wild that a team had two of the top four most unlikely losses of the season. And they were two of only three losses the Eagles had all season.

So much has happened over the course of the season that it’s easy to forget this one now. The Eagles had the ball in the red zone and gave the ball to Saquon Barkley for a 4-yard gain on first-and-10. A couple of Falcons timeouts later (they were out of timeouts!), Jalen Hurts threw to Barkley for what should have been an easy first down that would have allowed the Eagles to kneel the clock out … and Barkley dropped it. (His last bad moment of the season, you might say.) Now on fourth down, the Eagles chose to kick the field goal to go up 6 (there’s that decision again), and Kirk Cousins, back when we still thought he was Kirk Cousins, drove the Falcons straight down the field for a go-ahead touchdown. The Eagles were fingertips away from kneeling to run the clock out.

1. Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders, Week 8

97.9% win probability

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - AUGUST 17: Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) gives the coach a thumbs up during the game between the Washington Commanders and the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, August 17, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire) — MIAMI GARDENS, FL – AUGUST 17: Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) gives the coach a thumbs up during the game between the Washington Commanders and the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, August 17, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

Come on, you knew this was the winner … uh, loser. The Bears had gone into their bye at 4-2 and on a three-game winning streak. And after the offense had been stagnant most of the game, Caleb Williams led two touchdown drives in the second half to go ahead 15-12 with 25 seconds left. There wasn’t much reason to expect anything but the clock to expire, especially after the Commanders opened their next drive with an incomplete pass that meant they had second-and-10 with 76 yards to go and only one timeout. But after 11- and 13-yard completions (and the loss of that last timeout), they went for the 52-yard Hail Mary with 6 seconds left … and got it. You probably remember the highlights.

I marveled at the Eagles and 49ers having two of the top five losses in this exercise, but look at it from the other side: Washington had two of the four most unlikely wins of the season. They are doing absolutely nothing to escape the Team of Destiny allegations.