The Open Championship DFS Preview

The golf year’s final major, the British Open, is set to tee off this week at Royal St. George’s. All week, our FTN Daily team is breaking down the tournament from every angle for DFS purposes, and you can find all of it here.

PGA DFS volatility report

Matt Jones examines recent performance and long-term volatility among the field in this week’s Open Championship in search of a DFS edge. From the piece:

Patrick Cantlay ($8,900) boasts the highest PRK score of anyone priced between $8,900 and $7,500. I’m going to round his 79.9 to an 80. Golfers in this PRK score range finish in the T10 nearly 20% of the time. Over the course of the last year or so, Cantlay hasn’t been too volatile overall, but his recent results have been. While that might seem like a negative, it’s a good sign for his potential upside.

PGA DFS course fit and stats

Alex Blickle looks at the course fit model for this week’s Open Championship to find some golfers to target in DFS. From the piece:

Anytime iron play is emphasized and putting is de-emphasized, Keegan Bradley is sure to pop. Don’t overlook his short game, though. People don’t realize it because his putter destroys his scrambling numbers at times, but Keegan’s short game is solid. Between his iron play and short game, Keegan gains 0.87 strokes per round. For context, that’s more than mega-chalk Jordan Spieth (0.81 per round between the two).

7 under $7,000: Cheat DFS plays

Alex Blickle identifies some cheap golfers he thinks could pay off in DFS in this week’s Open Championship. From the piece:

Harold Varner is simply better than his price. His long-term strokes gained benchmark is +0.77 per round, as he gains nearly a third of a stroke per round in all tee-to-green categories. That kind of performance is worthy of a mid-$7k price at worst.

Course preview and core plays

Drew Mathews previews the course for the 2021 Open Championship and breaks down his core DFS plays for the slate. From the piece:

If you are using an optimizer, my advice is to narrow down your player pool and take the time to assign groups to various players based on their price, projection or ownership. From here you can be confident you are using your favorite plays without running into too much chalk.

The Murray Model: PGA DFS plays for the 2021 Open Championship

Kyle Murray does a deep dive into his model to pick out the best DFS plays and options for this weekend’s Open Championship. From the piece:

Jon Rahm lost the world No. 1 title, but he is still the best golfer on the planet right now. He has looked phenomenal the last four events we have seen him, including a seventh-place finish last weekend at the Scottish Open. Prior to that he had the win in the U.S. Open, the “should have been a win” at Muirfield where he was forced to withdraw with a 6-stroke lead, and then an eighth-place finish at the PGA Championship.