PGA Outrights and Best Bets for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines will be the star of the show this week at the Farmers Insurance Open. If rumors on the street are accurate, we will be seeing this host course again in a few weeks as a fill-in for Riviera. So, with that in mind, let’s dial in our course fit discussion this week and then capitalize twice. 

For this piece, I will be focusing on the split stats that pop and then utilize those to pick up on any course fit trends before looking at the betting board for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open. 

Check out our PGA betting model.

Course Fit

Heading to La Jolla, Calif., this week, golfers will do battle with Torrey Pines. They’ll get one round at Torrey Pines North, which is relatively easy, while the three remaining rounds will be at Torrey Pines South, an absolute brute of a course. With a full field at this time of year, this course rotation is necessary due to lack of daylight. 

Focusing our attention on the host course (Torrey South), we see a par 72 that stretches out to 7,765 yards. That’s not a typo — this is an absolute beast of a course. 

One of my favorite quotes on Torrey comes from Geoff Ogilvy back in 2017: “If you keep presenting Torrey Pines South, for example, where the farther you hit it the bigger advantage you have, we’re just going to go home, plug in the Trackman and hit it as hard as we can.” 

As you may have seen in Discord already, the course fit model calls for a big jump in xDriving Distance, while accuracy matter less than usual. From a split stat standpoint, we can start with past performance on long courses. This looks at courses where driver and mid to long irons are heavily used. 

Situated right on the coast, the ball doesn’t fly very far, which makes the distance even more extreme. Looking at performance on other similar coastal tracks has proven to be a wise strategy though. We want golfers that can handle the coastal breeze while also picking up on other course details that tend of overlap in coastal conditions. 

After that, we look at scoring environment and see that Torrey Pines South yields just a 17% birdie rate while golfers find bogey on 21% of the holes. So, while tough course performance won’t matter for one of the four rounds this week (North Course), we certainly want our golfers to be able to grind out those tough Torrey South conditions in the other three rounds. 

Lastly, let’s take a peek at turf, and we see that Torrey Pines North features bentgrass greens while Torrey Pines South has very speedy, poa annua surfaces. I like to combine bent and poa performance anyway so that makes it an easy decision for us to look at past performance on courses with bent-poa greens. 

So now, let’s combine all those split stats and look for golfers that overperform on similar setups. Here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance when playing courses with similar splits relative to their baseline. 

• Max Homa
• Joseph Bramlett
• Emiliano Grillo
• Justin Rose
• Andrew Putnam
• Tony Finau
• Ryo Hisatsune
• Nate Lashley
• Harris English
• Keegan Bradley

Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Given we have a host course that can play over 7,700 yards, I would recommend you cross-reference this with xDD from the FTN PGA Course Fit Model, as well. That’s going to remove names like Putnam and Lashley, maybe even Grillo and Ryo. 

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Hideki leads the field in weighted baseline performance and also leads the field in course monster score over the last five years. It’s kind of surprising that he’s not priced ahead of Aberg, but I also don’t want to pay 11/1 for Matsuyama. 

Historically, I’ve considered Torrey to be a spot for bigger favorites to feast. You can’t fake it around here. But then you have Scott Stallings winning at 250/1 in 2014 and Mattieu Pavon last year at 150/1. They proved it’s possible for longshots to win here but 8 of the last 11 winners of the Farmers have been 55/1 so that checks out with my intuition that it’s not a place I’d dig too deep for my outrights. 

Farmers Insurance Open Free Golf Bets

Max Greyserman to Win (25-1, one-fifth each-way for 10 places)

I talked about his heater last week, and he’s still riding high after a top 10 at The American Express. It was his fifth top 10 in his last eight starts. Greyserman ranks 2nd in the field in six-month baseline performance, behind only Hideki Matsuyama. He’s top 10 in driving distance, nice to see at Torrey Pines. 

I have his weighted baseline more than two strokes better than the field this week and historically in full fields when a golfer eclipses that 2-stroke barrier, they go on to post a 53% top-10 rate, 34% top-five rate and win 7% of the time. 

When you look at the each-way portion of this bet, it implies a 17% top-10 rate, less than half of that historical number I cited just above. Even if you take half of that 53% number cited above, you get 26% which is exactly where the Betting Model projects him, and with that this still looks decent value for the top-10 each-way portion of this bet. The heater won’t last forever but like I said last week, I want to keep riding it while it lasts. 

Victor Perez Top-20 Finish (+475)

When you check out the FTN PGA Betting Model, you notice Perez sitting at 25% when it comes to expected top-20 rate. That would imply a +300 fair price, but we see +475 over at Bet365. 

Perez shook off the rust last week with a top 35 in Palm Springs. He’s not a pure masher, but he has been longer than average in nine of his last 13 starts, so there is enough pop in the bat to keep him in the mix around a brute like Torrey South. 

Sungjae Im to Win (18-1, one-fourth each-way for 5 places)

When heading to Torrey Pines, I want to target golfers with their driver dialed in. Sungjae is second to Aberg when it comes to strokes gained off-the-tee in the last six months. He was second off-the-tee at The Sentry to start the year. His driver looked decent last week but lost a massive number of strokes with his irons at Amex. 

Sungjae is second in the field in course monster score at Torrey Pines. If he had posted a top 25 last week at Amex, we’d likely see his price closer to Matsuyama’s this week, instead we get him in the 20s and that’s enough for me to pounce. Like I said above, I don’t want to dig too deep for longshots at a course like Torrey Pines. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.