Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Vidanta Villarta, land of birdies and big numbers, always welcoming to the biggest of hitters. This will be the third hosting of the Mexico Open for Vidanta Villarta. We saw Jon Rahm take home the title in the debut 2022 edition with Tony Finau posting a runner-up finish. They flipped that script last year with Finau hoisting the hardware with Rahm being the next man on the leaderboard, three shots behind Big Tony.
With Rahm obviously out of the picture thanks to his LIV departure, that leaves Finau as the top dog on the odds boards this week.
Let’s dive into the split stats to see what names might be able to challenge Finau by week’s end.
Course Fit
Sometimes a course fit is obvious and that appears to be the case this week with Vidanta Villarta in regards to distance.
When you look at the first two leaderboards produced here, even without fancy regression models, it’s easy to see that power off the tee is a big advantage.
As Camilo Villegas put it in 2022, “You’re going to have to hit your mid to long irons pretty good. This golf course is very long, it could be one of the longest golf courses we play on the PGA Tour.”
Glancing at the scorecard, we see a par 71 that stretches to nearly 7,500 yards. There are five par 3s which you might think favors the shorter, more precise approach players. However, with the course still measuring nearly 7,500 yards despite having five par 3s, you know the rest of the holes are beefy.
Harry Higgs added this quote last year, “There’s no hybrids off any tees here, it’s just driver, hit it as far and as straight as you can.”
With that in mind we can head over to the split stat page and see who plays well on long courses and/or driver-heavy course. We can then combine that with performance on paspalum greens and/or coastal courses.
Once we compare those split stats to baseline performance, it gives the following 15 names as potential “overachievers” or split stat specialists.
Brandon Wu
Chandler Phillips
Ben Silverman
Parker Coody
Jake Knapp
Patton Kizzire
K.H. Lee
Maverick McNealy
Joseph Bramlett
Robert MacIntyre
Scott Stallings
Alex Smalley
Ryan Palmer
Victor Perez
Sam Stevens
McNealy finally flashed a big finish his last time out, proving his injury may finally be in the past. Historically, this is the type of venue that has really suited him well.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
The books have defending champ Finau priced as a huge favorite. This was easy to see coming based on his long-term name value and his course history here. If we zoom in to the last six months or even a year, the stats paint a different story. They suggest that Finau is not in a class of his own in this field, which makes it easy to attack the outright board with a few other big names.
Beyond the Outrights
This is where I spread my love to my favorite finish-position bet of the week.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 Finish
Best available: +145 (Bet365)
Thor won’t pop off the page if you are just looking at PGA Tour stats. He had a missed cut in two majors last year but typically spends his time on the DP World Tour. Once you zoom into his recent performance on that circuit, you’ll see why this bet stands out for me.
Olesen arrives with finishes of T21 or better in seven of his last eight starts. That includes a win in his most recent event played, lapping the field by six shots at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.
When I plug in those adjusted Euro stats, I have his top 20 odds closer to +110 in fair odds, so I will gladly take a bit of value in the +145 number.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
