Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Golf’s strongest field of the year will once again tee off on Thursday at TPC Sawgrass for the PGA Tours crown Jewel, The Players Championship. The course is as much a part of this tournament as the deep field, and while most of the shine is on the famed #17 island green, the entire course keeps the field on its toes.
The Pete Dye design has relatively narrow fairways and lined hazards aplenty across the 18 holes, which play a large factor in the wide range of scoring often seen at this tournament. The Players Championship has one of the highest penalty-shot rates on tour, in the same range as the Honda Classic that was played two weeks ago. While lacking a “Bear Trap”, the final three holes at TPC Sawgrass are formidable and water lined, with a combination of par 5, 3, and 4.
We have seen many routes to victory at this tournament, and while stellar tee-to-green is the more popular path, Webb Simpson putted his way to victory despite losing strokes on approach in 2018. Occasionally a surprise name has appeared on the trophy, but the list of past Champions is strong. As much of the field that is in play, it’s not likely an outsider will prevail.
The true beauty of TPC Sawgrass is how much of the field is in play to win. Distance is not a separator with many holes forcing drivers out of hand, and the lurking water being the great equalizer, swallowing any misses, no matter the pedigree of the golfer. Missing with the driver or irons can lead to big trouble, and historically TPC Sawgrass has had large penalties for missing fairways and greens. That’s mainly due to the hazards more so than thick rough. We saw Bryson DeChambeau go the route of many irons off the tee last year to combat avoiding big scores, and others will follow this model as well.
Outright Selections (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Patrick Cantlay 24/1
- Cameron Smith 34/1
- Joaquin Niemann 100/1
- Russell Henley 120/1
- Bubba Watson 190/1
- Tom Hoge 210/1
Most markets opened with Jon Rahm as their favorite, but FanDuel was a bit different showing Collin Morikawa atop their board at 10/1, before swiftly moving him to 11/1. The rest of the usual suspects follow closely, with defending champion Justin Thomas, last week’s runner-up, Viktor Hovland, and former champion Rory McIlroy. While all are tempting for different reasons, I’m starting with Patrick Cantlay 24/1.
He continues to play possibly the best golf in the world, despite his approach play having taken a step back from his career baseline. Although a concern, he continues to excel in the other three strokes gained categories, which has kept him right alongside Jon Rahm in terms of strokes gained total early this year and fairly close last season. I currently have him rated as the second-best golfer in the world and view the 24/1 as a gift. His ability to gain strokes from any facet of the game will serve well at TPC Sawgrass and be beneficial for the impending weather the tournament is forecasted to see over the weekend (winds/rain). He has missed the cut his last two trips to TPC Sawgrass and also has a couple T25’s, but course history for most of golf’s elite is a rollercoaster here and not something I would lean on. There is no perfect way to measure avoiding mistakes, but it is something to note that Cantlay finished inside the top three in bogey avoidance in 2019, 2021, and currently sits in second this season (48th in 2020). After winning the FedEx Cup last season, a Players trophy on the mantle would be a next great step in his career.
I won’t be venturing much further down the board for my next selection of Cam Smith 34/1. Smith turned a page in his career in 2021, and his start to the 2022 season shows he has continued on his upward trajectory. He started the calendar year with a win in Hawaii, took a pay day in Saudi Arabia, and now eyes The Players. Similar to Cantlay, Smith gains strokes across the board. However, his short game is his biggest weapon for now. It was spoken about often during his win at the Tournament of Champions how he added distance to his drives, and although that won’t be as large of a factor this week, it’s important to note he is continuing to find ways to improve an already stellar game. His consistency dating back to last March has been at an elite level, only losing strokes to the field in multiple categories twice, which is another reason to love him this week. If any part of the game is simply mediocre, he’s more than capable of picking up the slack elsewhere.
The middle of the betting market offers many temptations and name power (Brooks Koepka/Jordan Spieth) to recent form darling, such as Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch. Cases will be made to back many here, but I’ve largely skipped it, finding most of the value for myself this week closer to the favorites and further down with the longshots. I am sitting on a Niemann 100/1 ticket from around the time of him storming the Genesis Invitational, and the market has since adjusted him to around 50/1. But after Niemann, I’m eyeing Russel Henley at 120/1.
Henley has been fairly predictable over the last 12 months – so-so OTT, great iron play and melts on the greens. That said, I don’t want to act like he fixed his putting. However, it hasn’t been the thorn in his side so far in 2022. Instead, his driving has dipped from where it normally had been hovering, causing his mediocre finishes since the Sony Open. Driving accuracy can be a divisive topic, but in general, Henley hits more fairways than his competition and precision will come in handy this week, even when clubbing down. With distance taking a back seat this week, Henley’s elite irons will come in handy. And if his new-found putting resurgence continues, he should be in for a solid week.
Most weeks I don’t find many numbers much further down the market that interest me, but there were two golfers I made decently lower that showed value on FanDuel. This doesn’t seem to be a great course for Bubba Watson, but the 190/1 couldn’t be passed on. The course choking down distance is the first negative, and his historically poor short game is another. Prior to his missed cut at the Genesis, he showed life in Saudi Arabia with a second, and followed it with a 14th at WMPO. I’m not expecting fireworks, but I do think the number is inflated.
Lastly, I’ll be capping the card with Tom Hoge 210/1. His recent form has been outstanding, gaining almost two strokes per round, largely from his ball striking backed by a solid putter. Historically, he has always hit his irons well, and the uptick with his driver and putter led to his first Tour victory at Pebble Beach, which he has followed up with decent finishes in Phoenix and last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. It would be quite the leap to suddenly win The Players, but you can look at any leaderboard over the years and find plenty of surprise names that contended. That is the beauty of this course, and hopefully Hoge’s iron play and newly found OTT improvements create some magic.
