Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The end of the ACC season was thrilling, as the North Carolina Tar Heels spoiled Coach K’s last game in Cameron. That ending was bittersweet, but the road is far from over. The Blue Devils can earn a shot at redemption, as they are the odds-on favorite to win the ACC Tournament. However, there are plenty of other teams that will be eyeing a ticket to the Big Dance.
The favorite
Duke Blue Devils -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
It comes as no surprise that the Blue Devils are heavy favorites here. They were the regular season ACC champs and finished conference play No. 1 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
However, when you dive deeper into the numbers, Duke’s most common five on the floor only ranked third out of 10 other lineups in the ACC with the same amount of possessions. We also saw the Blue Devils fall to conference opponents four times this season. The common denominator in each of their losses was the three-ball. They allowed the most three-point attempts per field goals attempted in the conference. While they had the lowest three-point percentage allowed at that volume level, even a third of three-point makes can impact the game.
Looking ahead to their side of the bracket, they will face plenty of teams that can shoot from behind the arc. Matchups with Syracuse and then Miami, who beat them in Cameron, could be upset spots if Duke allows them to get hot from deep.
Of course, this may be finding needles in a haystack. The Blue Devils have an immense amount of talent and are projected to win the tournament almost 50 percent of the time, according to Bart Torvik’s simulations.
Value plays
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1000 (DraftKings)
The Demon Deacons had a tremendous season and finished 13-7 in conference play and 23-8 overall. Led by their star guard Alondes Williams, Wake Forest quickly became one of the better offensive teams in the country and are certainly a threat to run through this tournament.
They were not only first in the ACC in effective field goal percentage, but they also shot well enough to finish seventh in the country. The Demon Deacons do most of their damage from inside the arc. Their leading scorers, Alondes Williams and Jake LaRavia, shot over 61 percent from close range.
However, Wake Forest is not just an offensive juggernaut. They can defend, and they proved it against ACC opponents. They finished conference play second in field goal percentage allowed and third in adjusted defensive efficiency.
As the sixth seed, Wake is set to face the winner between Pitt and Boston College. Should they dispatch either of those teams, they will have a date with Miami. The Hurricanes were a thorn in the side of the Demon Deacons, as they were one of two teams to defeat them twice. If Wake Forest can get revenge, they will have the momentum to win it all.
North Carolina Tar Heels +950 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
North Carolina is one of the most polarizing teams in the nation. Their blue blood reputation precedes them, as they are always associated with success. However, North Carolina seems to be a tale of two different teams. We have seen them melt fast and get decimated on multiple occasions this season, but they pulled it together down the stretch and won their last five to end the season. The culmination was the sweetest of all, as they spoiled Coach K’s retirement party. Momentum and confidence are significant factors during tournament play, and the Tar Heels have it.
It all starts with the big man, Armando Bacot, for the Tar Heels. He is an absolute force on the glass and a nightmare for any team with a sizable big man to bang with him. Bacot is surrounded by a trio of great scorers. Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Brady Manek can score from anywhere, but they are also very proficient from behind the arc. That is what makes this team so explosive.
If the opening rounds stay chalk, then the Tar Heels will match up with Virginia, who they defeated earlier this year but can pose a challenge to anyone. Then they could meet Notre Dame, which is a good matchup for them. The Fighting Irish are likely to slow things down but will lack the size to contain Bacot. The path to the final is undoubtedly there.
Longshot
Virginia Cavaliers +1800 (DraftKings)
I touched on these Cavaliers in the previous section, and I highlight them now, as any Tony Bennett coached team is hard to count out. Virginia is still the team that will drag their opponents into deep waters by slowing the game to a crawl and playing stout defense.
Virginia proved to be competitive, as they took Iowa and Notre Dame to the brink and then took down Duke and Providence. It’s not far-fetched for the Cavaliers to make a run.
