Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The PGA Tour is returning to Bermuda for the third straight year for the Bermuda Championship, which will take place at Port Royal Golf Course. We have had some strong winners so far during the PGA’s fall swing but this week’s field is by far one of the weakest you will see for a full-point PGA Tour event. An already tumultuous task of predicting outcomes gets even harder as we add even more variance and inconsistency to the field.
We also lack strokes gained data from this event, so like last week, we will rely on making educated guesses based on the basic stats we do have and our knowledge of how things typically play out in similar circumstances. I also mentioned last week that I think it’s often better to avoid using past leaderboard results for course fit. However, be sure to remember that this exercise can be misleading as over time, the best players will rise to the top of leaderboards, even if their game is not a great fit for the course.
Port Royal Golf Course
- Par: 71
- Length: 6,828 yards
- Driving Distance: 293 yards
- Driving Accuracy: 50.5%
- Greens in Regulation: 62.2%
- Architect: Robert Trent Jones
Brendon Todd won with a -24 in 2019 and Brian Gay won at -15 last year. The course isn’t overly difficult as you can see from the 2019 outing (Todd did win by 4), but if wind picks up, it will play harder. The shorter the course, the less advantage for bombers than usual. If you pair that up with the low number of fairways and greens, I believe this is one of the rare courses where it is probably more of an advantage to be accurate than long. Birdie fests typically amount to irons and hitting putts. I’m not entirely sold either of these skills are absolutely required, but they will be the more valuable skills this week.
Below are a couple of my picks for this week. You can find all of my golf picks on our bet tracker. If you are not yet a member, sign up for FTN using code “Axis” for a discount!
Matchup | Bo Hoag -112 vs. Graeme McDowell | FanDuel
These odds caught my eye when my number made Hoag quite a big favorite over McDowell, which made me dive in deeper. This isn’t as much of a bet on Hoag as it is a fade of McDowell. I assume the market likes that McDowell has won some smaller events the last couple of years, including an event in Puntacana which I think many will look at as a comp; but that was in 2019. He did finish 4th at Puntacana this year, but that was his only finish inside the top 20 worldwide in the 2021 season. He has been bad at just about everything and I’m not ready to believe that just because he hit his irons well at the Dutch Open that he’s suddenly “found” something. Sure, his profile fits the course but so does Hoag’s.
Hoag’s profile is almost identical to McDowell, except he’s slightly better at everything these days. It was a rough start to the season for Hoag but he turned it around in July and played solid enough to make it through the Korn Ferry Finals and back to the Tour. It’s nothing stellar and he’s been at best an average Tour player, but even at that level he’s way ahead of where McDowell has been. I’m hoping to take advantage of a market overreaction to a coastal course narrative for McDowell.
The line currently sits at -142 Hoag, which is no longer an edge. At the time of posting and alerting the subscriber Discord, the line was -112. This is another added benefit of being a subscriber!
Matchup | Mito Pereira -108 vs Patrick Reed | FanDuel
Although this line did not move like Hoag’s, I still feel confident in the side. Pereira and Reed are opposite types of players; Pereira excelling with his ball-striking and Reed leaning heavily on his short game. By now, it is widely known the ball-striking part of golf is the more consistent skill set and can be relied upon to be more predictive. Although the distance advantage won’t be as pronounced this week, Pereira also has shown above-average accuracy and matched this with above-average iron play in his short stint on the PGA Tour. Yes, we have to keep in mind that some of Reed’s recent poor play is most likely attributable to an injury, but even before he got hurt he wasn’t pushing for victories. Pereira has all the tools to be a great Tour player and although I may be more bullish than the market, I still believe that he should be favored in this matchup.
