Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Coming into this week, favorites have been on a roll. They had been the better side in each of the last two weeks and have outpaced underdogs with a 3-2-1 record through the first six weeks. That record moved to 4-2-1 after another strong showing in Week 7. We saw seven favorites cover the spread in Week 7 out of 13 games played. Many of them were teams we expected to win, as they were rated higher in our NFL Power Rankings on FTNBets. The Broncos and Falcons just barely covered in their games, but teams like New England, Arizona and Tampa Bay crushed its opponents. Green Bay and Las Vegas were the other two favorites to win and cover, both comfortably by around 10 points. The Rams and Saints both won but failed to cover the spread. Favorites outpaced underdogs 7-6 in Week 7 ATS. A thin margin of victory this week, but a win is a win.
NFL underdogs record
The underdogs started the season off hot. A flat 1-unit bet on the moneyline for every underdog turned a profit in each of the first four weeks. In Weeks 5 and 6, underdogs got crushed so badly that it turned the seasonal profit into a loss. Despite dogs ruling the day to start the year, things have now turned to the point where it has been more profitable to bet on favorites. Week 7 continued this trend. Out of the 13 games played, only four underdogs cashed. They were the Giants, Titans, Bengals and Colts. Seven of the favorites won and covered, with the Rams and Saints ML bets cashing, but both losing ATS. Underdogs went just 4-9 in Week 7. Does this mean betting on dogs is a bad strategy? No, a flat-bet profit was still made in four of the seven weeks of the season so far. Although in the overall numbers, a flat bet on every dog this season has been a losing proposition. To see which dogs have the best chance to bite in Week 8, check out the first look at the opening lines from BetMGM and DraftKings sportsbook.
NFL team scoring
This has not been a good season for betting overs on NFL games. This is not a new trend either. Books know that casual bettors shade to overs more often than unders, and they push up the totals a bit to compensate for that. Smart bettors (like you guys who follow us here) know that when in doubt, the under is usually the better side of a game to be on. Heading into Week 7, a flat bet on every over would have returned a profit in just two of six weeks. Unders were the better side in three of six, and last week we saw a 6-6-2 record that meant only the books made money on them. We had 13 games in Week 7 and overs went just 5-8. That means the season total is now 47-58-2 for over bets in NFL games. Overs have cashed in less than 44% of games, while unders have hit in 54% and the roughly 2% remaining is for pushes that landed directly on the number. Now that we have almost half a season worth of data, we can start to look at some individual teams that have outpaced the league averages here. Dallas has been the best over team, cashing it in five of their six contests. Eleven other teams have a positive record to the over, which bucks the league-wide trend of unders being the more prominent choice. Those teams are the Falcons, Ravens, Chiefs, Colts, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins, Rams, Bucs, Titans and the Washington Football Team. To see how every team is doing ATS and vs. the totals, check out the updated betting trends records on FTNBets.
