Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Let’s take a look at the opening odds, early betting pick, and breakdown of Saturday’s UFC 267 main event. UFC 267 takes place on Oct. 30. The event marks the UFC’s return to Fight Island in the United Arab Emirates. The UFC put on multiple events inside the Etihad Arena over the course of the pandemic but has not been overseas since January 23rd for UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2. Unlike previous trips to Fight Island, the UFC will only be in the UAE for one week before heading back to the states for UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York City on November 6th. There are two title fights at the top of the bill for UFC 267, but the main event is for the Light Heavyweight title in a matchup between the current champion, Jan Blachowicz, and challenger Glover Teixeira, who lost in his only previous shot at touching UFC gold in 2014.
Here are the latest odds for Blachowicz vs Teixeira, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blachowicz enters this bout as a large favorite priced at -305, meaning you have to lay $305 to win $100 with a bet on the champ. Teixeira is entrenched as the underdog with a betting line of +240, meaning a $100 bet would profit $240 should the Brazilian be able to pull off the upset on Fight Island.
Blachowicz vs. Teixeira fight breakdown
Blachowicz and Teixeira are not necessarily names that you hear when talking about the biggest stars in the UFC, but this is a matchup that should excite hardcore fans of the sport, as there are some great storylines at play.
Blachowicz, 38, has had one of the most fascinating runs we’ve seen inside the UFC. In April of 2017 he had lost four of his last five fights inside the promotion and was seemingly on the verge of getting cut, but has since put together a 9-1 run over his last ten fights and knocked out Dominick Reyes to win the vacant title last September before defending his belt against Israel Adesanya earlier this year. Teixeira, 41, has a similar story. Teixeira has been fighting in the UFC since 2012 and was undefeated in the promotion until 2014, when he lost a five-round decision to Jon Jones in a title fight. Teixeira then went 5-4 in his next nine fights following his title shot but has put together a five-fight win streak dating back to 2019 that includes four finishes. Blachowicz enters this fight as a large favorite, likely due to his dominance against the champion Adesanya back in March. Teixeira enters as the underdog, which was to be expected. Despite his recent results, Teixeira has been in serious danger of losing some of his most recent fights and is known for his comeback style, something that may be tough to do against the champion.
Stylistically, Blachowicz’s most notable attribute is his “legendary Polish power,” which is a term that was coined in large part due to the knockout power in his hands that defeated Luke Rockhold, Corey Anderson, and Dominick Reyes – all in an eight-month span. Defensively, Blachowicz is pretty responsible at avoiding damage. He has absorbed just 2.79 strikes per minute across his UFC career and has only been finished twice in 36 fights at one of the heavier weight classes.
On the flip side, most of Teixeira’s success has historically come through grappling. While Teixeira has 18 career knockouts and certainly carries power in his punches, which are mostly power hooks, his current win streak has been more about Brazilian Jiu Jitsu excellence. Teixeira submitted Karl Roberson, Ion Cutelaba, and Thiago Santos during his current win streak, and his knockout over Anthony Smith was due to positional dominance on the ground and some heavy ground and pound. The main knock against Teixeira at this point in his career is that he’s an aging fighter with poor striking defense, which has led to him frequently getting hurt. He was knocked down and nearly finished in his last victory against Santos, and the same thing happened against Karl Roberson in 2019. Yet Teixeira has elite recovery skills and is oftentimes able to land desperation takedowns to get himself out of precarious positions in the octagon.
MMA betting picks — UFC 266
UFC 267 is certainly a stacked card and despite a bunch of exciting fights for us to comb through, the betting lines seem pretty efficient this week. However, I do like the underdog here in the main event. It’s possible, perhaps even likely that Blachowicz can come out on Saturday and put Teixeira away early in their fight. Blachowicz has that “legendary Polish power” that I have referenced a few times, and Teixeira is prone to getting stung in almost all his fights. I think the standup dynamic in this fight should be a fairly sizable edge to the champion, who despite having a slightly lower punching output than Teixiera throughout their careers is more likely to land the power punches in this matchup. Blachowicz also has a strong kicking game as part of his striking arsenal, as shown in his win over Dominick Reyes where he left the American a nice big red foot imprint on his ribcage. Teixiera isn’t drawing dead on the feet. He hits extremely hard himself and we have seen Blachowicz hurt before, but Teixiera’s success in striking is more likely to be the result of one punch as opposed to dominance over the course of multiple exchanges.
However, I do think that Teixeira has a decently good chance at implementing a game plan here that would give the champion trouble. While Blachowicz’s takedown defense isn’t atrocious at 65%, we have seen fighters have some success bringing him down in the past. I suspect that Teixeira will shoot takedowns and try to make this fight as clinch-heavy and as cage-push heavy as possible, which is where he could wear on Blachowicz. A recent example of a similar stylistic fight is when Blachowicz fought Jacare Souza in November of 2019. Souza went 0-5 in takedown attempts in that fight, but was able to tie Blachowicz up against the cage for eight and a half minutes, which led to a split decision. Any iteration of this fight with eight-plus minutes of control for Teixeira should make him extremely live to win. The biggest fear by far for the Teixeira side is that Blachowicz is likely to hurt him at least once, and Teixeira has been able to land takedowns when hurt against lesser competition, but Blachowicz has decent first-level takedown defense and is an instinctual finisher when he hurts opponents. I’m picking the champion, but the betting value lies solely in the underdog.
Pick: Jan Blachowicz by knockout
Bet: No official bet yet, likely will bet Teixeira at +230 or better.
Be sure to check out the FTNBets MMA page for the latest free content, picks, props and more for UFC 266. Want more free content? Check out the Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and Jonah Shiffman.
