NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Below are a few of my fantasy hockey targets for the 2023-24 NHL season. I’m into pretty much every player I’ve written about in this fantasy hockey draft guide, so be sure to check out my breakout candidates, sleepers and undervalued targets as well.
Below is a list of my guys. These are the players I have the most shares of and these are the players I’m willing to reach a bit to get in fantasy hockey drafts. Keep in mind your fantasy hockey scoring settings. I play in a lot of leagues that count shots, hits, blocks and power play points.
I also listed a few players below, who you don’t need me to talk you into. For example, Jack Hughes and Tage Thompson were two of my guys last season and now they’re first- and second-round picks. It’s possible you could start your draft with both, and I’d consider that a huge win.
Fantasy Hockey Rankings: https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-rankings
Sleepers: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-sleepers
Breakouts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-breakouts
Busts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-busts
Old Faces, New Places: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-old-faces-new-places
High Stakes Strategy: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-high-stakes-draft-strategy
Best Ball: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-best-ball-strategy
2023-2024 Fantasy Hockey Targets
Roope Hintz, C, Dallas Stars
Hintz backed up his 37-goal season in 2021-22 with another 37-goal season last year, and he missed nine games. He had an impressive 43 points in 41 games in 2020-21, 72 in 80 games in 2021-22 and set a career high with 75 points in 73 games last season. He took his game to another level in the playoffs with 10 goals and 24 points in 19 games. Hintz averaged 3.1 shots per game, after only registering 2.5 in the regular season. Sometimes a player pops off in the playoffs and it results in an overpay the next season. That’s not the case here. I believe Hintz is scratching the surface of his prime and he could find himself in the first or second round of drafts next season. Can he get 40 goals and 90 points? It’s certainly possible with how loaded the Stars are on offense and the chemistry he’s built with Jason Robertson.
Tim Stutzle, C/LW, Ottawa Senators
Stutzle broke out last season to the tune of 39 goals and 90 points. The third overall pick from 2020 has the speed, skill, shot, and vision to back it up in year four. The Sens’ center has an impressive 17 power play goals and 54 points on the man advantage over the last two years. Not known for his physical play but he doesn’t shy away from contact (114 hits last season and 239 in the last two seasons). We’re encouraged by the boost in ice time as well as he went from 18 minutes per game as a sophomore to 21 minutes per game last season, which included 23 MPG over his final 22 matchups. Josh Norris is a player I like as well and he could find himself on the top line at times, but I believe we’ll see Stutzle linked to Brady Tkachuk all year. These two are great early-round best ball duos to consider.
Zach Hyman, W, Edmonton Oilers
Hyman was an absolute steal in drafts last season, but you’ll have to pay the price this year. The Oilers’ winger touched career highs in goals (36), assists (47), points (83), power play goals (15), power play points (26), shots (276) and ice time per game (20:09). There really isn’t a category Hyman can’t touch and on top of all that, he gets time with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatil at 5v5 and on the PP. He certainly has more value in leagues with shots and power play points. If you’re lucky enough to get McDavid or Draisaitl, consider stacking either with Hyman. In a league without shots and hits, you can let him slide down the board a touch.
Adrian Kempe, C/RW, Los Angeles Kings
Last season I was mind-boggled as to why Kempe was going so late in fantasy hockey drafts. His price moved up this season, but he’s still going a couple of rounds later than he should. If you didn’t buy his 35 goals in 2021-22, you have to buy his 41 from last season. He’s played 18 minutes per game in back-to-back seasons, and he’s put up 247 shots and 250 shots in the last two seasons. He has one of the best releases in the game and he’s not afraid to use it. He’s also given managers 100-plus hits in each of the last two seasons, to go along with at least nine power play goals in three straight campaigns.
Alex Tuch, RW, Buffalo Sabres
Like Kempe, Tuch makes the list for the second straight year. In his first full season with Buffalo, Tuch scored a career-high 36 goals and 79 points. He also set career-highs in power play points (20), shots (218) and ice time (19:09). Tuch is a top line winger on most teams, but he only received 16:50 per game in his last season on a loaded Golden Knights squad. He went from second PP duties in Vegas to the top spot in Buffalo where he averaged 3:21. He also showed great chemistry with Tage Thompson, who we love at FTN Network. These two are shot prop darlings and point per game players.
Clayton Keller, W, Arizona Coyotes
Don’t let the logo on the jersey fool you. Keller is a stud, and he’s a strong draft target who may fall in your league because of the team he plays for. Like most players on this list, he’s fresh off a career-best season in which he scored 37 goals, dished out 49 assists and registered 223 shots over 20:45 of ice time per game. Keller’s 19 goals at 5v5 from Jan. 1 to the end of the regular season trailed only Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak who had 21 each. He was also third behind those two in 5v5 points over that span (35 points in 47 games). It’s the strong 5v5 play that has me buying on draft day. The Coyotes winger won’t provide any hits, but he’s a volume shooter, and he has a quiet 149 points in his last 149 games.
Owen Tippett, RW, Philadelphia Flyers
You can argue Tippett broke out last season, but I think he can take his game to another level. The winger is turning into one of my favorite touch em’ all targets and I’ve been grabbing a lot of shares. Tippett scored a career-high 27 goals, 49 points and 12 play points (eight PPG) in his first full season with the Flyers. Over his 77 games, he also had a career-high 231 shots and 125 hits over 17 minutes per game. He came on strong in the second half of the season and he was rewarded with more ice time as he only averaged 15 minutes per game in his first 46 compared to 20 minutes per game in his final 31 (post-all-star). He scored 10 goals and picked up 17 points over his final 21 games. He was shooting everything and hitting everybody. My kind of player. First line and PP1 duties are a lock.
Jared McCann, LW, Seattle Kraken
As you can probably tell, I like volume shooters. A lot of these players listed are my favorite to attack in the shot prop game because they love to shoot the puck and they’re go-to options on their respective power plays. The same applies here with McCann who scored 40 goals last season after scoring 27 in his first season with Seattle. His shooting percentage (19%) was a touch high, but I expect another 30 goals and 16-20 power play points.
Tyler Toffoli, W, New Jersey Devils
No matter where Toffoli plays, he scores goals. The winger had three 20-goal seasons with Los Angeles, he scored six in 10 games with Vancouver, 37 in 89 games with Montreal and 34 last season with Calgary. Now he’s playing for a high-powered New Jersey Devils team that may just lead the NHL in goals this season. I think he’ll make for a great fit alongside Jack Hughes, whose vision is off the charts.
Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets
Gabriel Vilardi is one of the best kept secrets in the NHL, and he’s bound for a breakout in Winnipeg. With PLD and Blake Wheeler out of town, Vilardi, who played on the third line in Los Angeles, will get a chance to play in the top six and maybe the first line in Winnipeg. If he gets a chance to skate with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, he’ll be a must-own player. I fully believe he’ll get that chance. He’s listed as a C but will get winger eligibility. He’ll also top the 15 minutes he played last season and the nine power-play points he picked up. Oh, and he’s a good bet to top his career-high 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games last season. The Jets made out alright in this Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, and I expect Vilardi to become a fan favorite right away.
Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Some Leafs fans in your league may reach on Matthew Knies, but his ADP on Yahoo and ESPN suggests he’s free near the end of drafts. On the brightest stage in the playoffs, the rookie had four points, seven shots and 15 hits in seven games. He averaged a decent 13:07 per game, which is pretty solid considering he only had three NHL games under his belt before the playoffs began. He played a decent role with Toronto and could stick inside a loaded top six this season.
Barrett Hayton, C, Arizona Coyotes
Hayton was a league-winner down the stretch of last season, and he’s getting looked over in drafts this season. Look, I love Logan Cooley just like everyone else, and he already has our attention (see below). However, Cooley is the team’s future No. 1 center. Hayton is Arizona’s No. 1 center right now, and he was amazing with Clayton Keller last season. The fifth overall pick from 2018 scored 19 goals, 42 points and 10 power play points. He also played a career-high 17:30, but his minutes increased with each month. He played 15 minutes per game over the first two months and 19 minutes per game in the final 32 games. Over those 32 games, he scored 12 goals and picked up 26 points. Throughout this Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide, we’ve discussed Keller’s dominance at 5v5. This is a duo I don’t think you can split up. Draft Cooley ahead of Hayton in dynasty leagues and have shares in redraft, but Hayton is good!
Michael Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens
I hate to pick on Yahoo Sports!, but they have Michael Matheson ranked as their 466th player. He’s not even getting drafted in standard 12-team leagues over there and I think he has top 20 upside at the position. I took him as the 25th defenseman off the board in a best ball league at NFHC, but I reached a touch according to ADP. I think everyone is snoozing! Matheson only had 34 points last season but he only played 48 games. It was his first season with the Habs, and things started slow due to an injury, which delayed his debut until November. The former Penguin had eight points in his first 17 games with Montreal and 26 points over his final 31 games. He averaged 25 minutes per game over that span, which ranked inside the top five in the NHL, and he was a top-10 defenseman in fantasy over the final two months of the season. There’s no reason to think he won’t lead the Canadiens in ice time, which includes PP1 duties. Matheson will pile up shots, blocks and hits and will improve on last season’s career numbers should he play 60+ games. I’m not saying he’ll flirt with 70 points, but he’ll touch career highs across the board. He was one of our favorite players to attack in the shot prop game due to his usage. He’s such a good skater and he’s not afraid to move the puck up the ice himself or join the rush. Matheson averaged 2.48 points per game in high stakes leagues, which ranked 16th at the position. Over the last six weeks of the season, only Quinn Hughes, Devon Toews and Kris Letang had more ice time than Matheson. Over that span, he finished sixth in shot attempts, fourth in shots, 10th in scoring chances and 11th in points.
Ilya Samsonov, G, Toronto Maple Leafs
Again with Yahoo Sports, but I’m shocked Samsonov is the No. 16 goalie over there. They have him ranked 113th despite a top-35 finish overall. Only six goalies were better in fantasy hockey than Samsonov in 2022-23. The Maple Leafs bought low from the Capitals and did it ever pay off. The former first round pick from 2015 posted a 27-10-5 record with a 2.33 GAA and .919 SV%. Yes, those numbers were the best of his career, as were the four shutouts. The Leafs are loaded on offense and they’re going to win a lot of games. In deeper formats, grab Martin Jones or Joseph Woll (likely Jones who is the No. 2) late and you’ll get 40-plus wins in net.
Adin Hill, G, Vegas Golden Knights
I wouldn’t expect Hill to be the same guy he was throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs, but you’re also not paying for his amazing showing en route to the Cup. Hill is going well outside the top 20 goalies, and he has the upside to be a top-12 goalie, even if he splits time. Hill won 16 of his 25 starts and 11 of his 15 outings in the playoffs. He posted a remarkable .932 SV% which won’t carry over this season, but he has a rock-solid .910 mark for his career (.914 in 2022-23). He also has a promising 2.67 GAA over 101 career games. It’s a small sample size, but again the price is right and the team in front of him is stingy at 5v5. Hill and Logan Thompson are one of the better 1-2 punches in fantasy and they won’t even come close to putting a dent in your wallet come draft day. Hill makes for a great number two if you land some of my other goalie targets below.
“Who is this year’s Tage Thompson?”
I’ve been asked that question a few times and it’s a fantastic question. Someone who is getting drafted in the mid rounds who could become a first-round pick next year.
Let’s rank the candidates.
Clayton Keller, ARI
Adrian Kempe, LA
Barrett Hayton, ARI
Owen Tippett, PHI
Drake Batherson, OTT
Matty Beniers, SEA
Dawson Mercer, NJ
Other Targets
Forwards
Jack Hughes, NJ
Jason Robertson, DAL
Tage Thompson, BUF
Elias Pettersson, VAN
Timo Meier, NJ
Nico Hischier, NJ
Alex DeBrincat, DET
Cole Caufield, MTL
Taylor Hall, CHI
Evander Kane, EDM
Andrei Kuzmenko, VAN
Wyatt Johnston, DAL
Tyler Bertuzzi, TOR
Barrett Hayton, ATI
Drake Batherson, OTT
Kirill Marchenko, CBJ
Matthew Knies, TOR
Vladimir Tarasenko, OTT
Blake Wheeler, NYR
Matt Duchene, DAL
Ivan Barbashev, VGK
Matias Maccelli, ARI
Charlie Coyle, BOS
Jonathan Drouin, COL
Connor Brown, EDM
Defensemen
Rasmus Dahlin, BUF
Evan Bouchard, EDM
Miro Heiskanen, DAL
Vince Dunn, SEA
Zach Werenski, CBJ
Drew Doughty, LA
Sean Durzi, ARI
Jakob Chychrun, OTT
Luke Hughes, NJ
Shea Theodore, VGK
Justin Faulk, STL
Seth Jones, CHI
Rasmus Sandin, WAS
Jared Spurgeon, MIN
Cam Fowler, ANA
Goalies
Ilya Sorokin, NYI
Jake Oettinger, DAL
Alexandar Georgiev, COL
Filip Gustavsson, MIN
Joonas Korpisalo, OTT
Pheonix Copley, LA
Stuart Skinner, EDM
Akira Schmid, NJ
Devon Levi, BUF
Jacob Markstrom, CGY
Duos to target: VGK, CAR, NJ, MIN, LA
