Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NFL teams are constantly making moves on their coaching staffs, and after every season multiple play-callers are finding new offenses to improve.
It makes a notable difference for fantasy football purposes. While we are still waiting on a few teams to solidify their coaching staff, let’s take an early look at who could benefit from these moves, as well as who could potentially be at a disadvantage going forward.
Winners
Denver Broncos
Things continue to change in Denver, and entering last season the hype was a mile high. Denver added Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett, hoping to pair an electric offense with a stout defense.
It’s safe to say things didn’t work out.
The Broncos had one of the worst offenses in football last year, ranking 25th in yards per play (5.0), 30th in points per drive (1.4), 28th in yards per drive (27.6) and 28th in plays per drive (5.6). Meanwhile, Denver scored points on just 28.6% of drives last season, the second-worst rate in football. Wilson was 25th among all signal-callers in EPA per play in his first season with the Broncos, but things should be on the rise with the addition of Sean Payton.
Payton is one of the best offensive minds we have seen over the last 20 years. While those Saints teams certainly had a ton of talent – as well as a Hall of Fame quarterback – Payton’s play-calling and schemes are fantasy-friendly. One of the best screen innovators in football, Payton will dial up plenty of screens to make Wilson’s job easier. In 2022-23, Wilson sported a 10.2% dropback rate on screen passes, while ranking 13th in total screen passes (55). Both numbers could rise in Payton’s offense, while the running backs will be very involved in the passing game as well.
It is an interesting dichotomy, as Wilson has historically not thrown to running backs, though he also played in a ton of run-centric Seattle offenses that featured a concentrated passing game. This past season in Denver, running backs saw over 24% of the targets. The difference, however, is that running back targets are schemed in Payton’s offense and don’t simply come from random checkdowns. From 2013-2021, running backs accounted for an average of 27.8% of the Saints’ targets, with only two seasons sporting a running back target share south of 25% during that time frame. This could be great for Javonte Williams’ PPR outlook, though he is slated to miss a large part of the 2023 season.
Baltimore Ravens Pass-Catchers
After years of operating as arguably the most run-heavy offense in football, are the Ravens suddenly going to transform into more of an aerial attack?
I’m not entirely sure, but at the moment it’s more likely than ever.
Baltimore hired Todd Monken as the team’s offensive coordinator. Monken spent the last three seasons calling plays at the University of Georgia but obviously has plenty of NFL experience. He was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay from 2016-18 where Jameis Winston and the Bucs put the ball in the air quite a bit. During those three seasons, Tampa Bay ranked top six in passing play percentage twice.
Of course, the roster constructions of those Tampa Bay teams and this Baltimore club are quite different, while there are still questions surrounding quarterback Lamar Jackson’s future with the organization. Because Jackson has been the absolute focal point of this offense over the last few years, your offensive philosophy completely changes if he is no longer with the team. Former offensive coordinator Greg Roman has implemented extremely run-centric offenses during his time with both the Ravens and Bills, while also utilizing the quarterback in the rushing game quite a bit with both Jackson and Tyrod Taylor.
You certainly won’t love the potential of Baltimore wideouts if Jackson isn’t there, though the volume could be on the rise, which could potentially mask any inefficiencies. Finally, Monken implemented plenty of two tight-end sets at Georgia, and while Mark Andrews’ role will remain large, this could be a boost for second-year tight end Isaiah Likely.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina has a brand new regime in store for 2023. Frank Reich is now the team’s head coach, while the Panthers also hired Thomas Brown as the offensive coordinator. Reich spent the last 4+ seasons in Indianapolis, and I’d expect a West Coast style offense to make its way to Carolina. We have also seen the RPO become a staple of Reich’s offenses in both Philadelphia and Indianapolis.
Since the 2019 season, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz (Indianapolis’ starting quarterbacks during those years), ranked eighth, seventh and sixth in pass attempts out of RPO, respectively. Two years ago, Wentz ranked seventh among all signal-callers in RPO plays (84), which isn’t too shocking when you consider it was also a huge part of Reich and Doug Pederson’s offenses with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Reich’s offenses have leaned more toward West Coast, targeting the middle of the field in the passing game and getting the ball out quickly. Crossing routes have been a pretty common pattern in this scheme, as 13% of Wentz’s passes were to crossing routes in 2020. And in 2019, Rivers targeted crossing routes 14% of the time in this very same offense, which was the same number as Brissett back in 2020. The middle of the field has been targeted very often in this offense, as 20% of Wentz’s passes were to the short middle part of the field that year, which was the 10th-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks.
Reich tends to run a lot of mesh concepts in the passing game, and while that took a step back last year, I believe a lot of it had to do with Wentz’s propensity to hold onto the football.
Brown, meanwhile, spent the last few seasons alongside Sean McVay in Los Angeles. He recently stated he wants the offensive identity to feature plenty of shifts and motion, which has me really excited about DJ Moore, especially if they move him all over the formation like the Rams have done with Cooper Kupp. Overall, this offense should have much more consistency, while an upgrade at quarterback is very possible via the draft.
Losers
New York Jets
I honestly don’t understand why the Jets parted ways with Mike LaFleur. The team had the worst quarterback situation in the NFL last season, while their star rookie running back suffered a torn ACL midway through the season. LaFleur is now with the Rams, and the Jets have brought in Nathaniel Hackett, who just struggled to assemble a competent offense in Denver, despite having plenty of talent on the field. Most of Hackett’s success on offense came with Aaron Rodgers under center, so if the Jets can land the Hall of Fame signal-caller, my tune will change a little bit.
Arizona Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury was not getting the job done. The Cardinals offense, especially in the red zone, underwhelmed far too often. But for fantasy, going from Kingsbury’s staff to Jonathan Gannon and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing could be a downgrade simply due to pace. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the Cardinals have ranked second in the NFL in seconds per snap (25.6), while also easily sporting the league’s highest no-huddle rate during that span at 36.7%.
Petzing hasn’t been an offensive coordinator before, spending the last few years in Cleveland as the Browns tight ends and quarterbacks coach. Cleveland has been right around league average in pace during that stretch. But regardless, the pace of play is going to drop quite a bit in Arizona this season.
