Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Each year at FTN, I’m tasked with identifying who should be the 1.01 in next year’s (2024) fantasy football drafts. In 2022, I picked Christian McCaffrey (correct). In 2023, I picked CMC again (correct again).
So who is it going to be in 2024? Well, probably CMC again … but let’s make the case for a few players.
Let’s dive into the 1.01 spot for 2024.
The Contenders for the 1.01 Spot in 2024 Fantasy Drafts
Let’s start by looking at last year’s fantasy MVPs:
| Player | Pos | Team | Wins Added |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 2.22 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 2.21 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 2.18 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 1.68 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 1.67 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 1.65 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 1.61 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BLT | 1.39 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 1.21 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 1.21 |
This gives us a decent starting point for identifying the 2024 fantasy football draft 1.01 contenders. But some big names are missing (namely at WR).
You might be surprised to see so many QBs in the top 10 — “late-round QB” might be dead, more on that later this offseason… — but no QB should go first overall.
Early Underdog ADP data shows that McCaffrey is the favorite to go first next year. His ADP is 1.2. Everyone else is 2.5 or higher.
But there’s still a short-list of contenders — four as I count ‘em:
Let’s go through each one.
Christian McCaffrey’s Case as the First Overall Pick in 2024 Drafts
Christian McCaffrey just continues to be amazingly good at football and fantasy football. He finished as a net positive for your fantasy team in every single game last year:
| Week | Half-PPR Points | Half-PPR Wins Added |
| 1 | 24.4 | 0.18 |
| 2 | 21.0 | 0.10 |
| 3 | 20.4 | 0.11 |
| 4 | 45.2 | 0.38 |
| 5 | 14.8 | 0.03 |
| 6 | 12.7 | 0.04 |
| 7 | 23.1 | 0.14 |
| 8 | 26.8 | 0.19 |
| 10 | 17.2 | 0.10 |
| 11 | 18.8 | 0.12 |
| 12 | 28.4 | 0.20 |
| 13 | 20.8 | 0.10 |
| 14 | 15.8 | 0.05 |
| 15 | 39.2 | 0.33 |
| 16 | 22.1 | 0.14 |
| 17 | 11.1 | 0.01 |
Still just 27 (28 in June) and with two full seasons back-to-back, CMC appears to have shed the “injury-prone” label. He has 1-2 years left in his prime. There’s really no reason not to take him first overall unless you’re going hundreds of lineups and feel the need to differentiate.
He catches. He runs. He gains yards. He breaks long plays. He scored a metric f-ton of touchdowns. We don’t need an FTN Data-backed dissertation on why CMC is goated for fantasy.
This feels like the first time in three years my “take CMC first overall” position won’t be met with contention. That’s the only reason I’m nervous about giving the advice again.
Justin Jefferson’s Case as the First Overall Pick in 2024 Drafts
Justin Jefferson was the consensus 1.01 in drafts last year (outside of yours truly again), and it’s impossible not to love him. He finished as the overall WR15 in fantasy value last year despite missing nearly half the season. He still topped 1,000 receiving yards and added 0.72 fantasy wins to your team thanks to his monstrous ceiling.
(That means Jefferson was more valuable than players like Nico Collins and Amari Cooper, even though he missed so much time.)
He finished as a top-seven WR in five of his nine games this year, including four straight to begin the year before everything was thrown off from injury. He was on track to meet his 1.01 pick expectations.
The big question mark for Jefferson is QB. If Kirk Cousins comes back, Jefferson’s case for the 1.01 is safe. If they draft and start a rookie QB, Jefferson becomes less of a lock.
CeeDee Lamb’s Case as the First Overall Pick in 2024 Drafts
CeeDee Lamb went berserk over the second half of 2023.
| Week | Half-PPR Points | Half-PPR Wins Added |
| 1 | 9.7 | 0.02 |
| 2 | 19.8 | 0.16 |
| 3 | 8.2 | -0.02 |
| 4 | 12.8 | 0.03 |
| 5 | 6.9 | -0.03 |
| 6 | 15.2 | 0.10 |
| 8 | 35.0 | 0.33 |
| 9 | 24.6 | 0.25 |
| 10 | 34.0 | 0.32 |
| 11 | 13.5 | 0.08 |
| 12 | 13.3 | 0.03 |
| 13 | 26.6 | 0.23 |
| 14 | 16.1 | 0.09 |
| 15 | 15.1 | 0.09 |
| 16 | 22.2 | 0.14 |
| 17 | 35.7 | 0.38 |
He finished with positive fantasy wins added in 11 straight games to finish the year, including monstrous 0.33, 0.25, 0.32, 0.23 and 0.38 weeks in that stretch. (A week with 0.38 fantasy wins added means Lamb teams won 88% of their fantasy matchups.) He turned fantasy teams nearly invincible.
In Weeks 9-17, Lamb had 1,018 receiving yards. No other receiver had more than 775. He scored 7 TDs, which trailed only Mike Evans in that stretch. He had 112 targets — 17 more than any other player. His 76 receptions over the second half of the year were 21 more than any other WR.
If he can keep that up for an entire season, he’ll set records and your fantasy team will be unbeatable.
Tyreek Hill’s Case as the First Overall Pick in 2024 Drafts
Tyreek Hill is just a freak of nature player in the NFL, and since he’s showing no signs of slowing down, there’s no reason to think he won’t simply be unguardable again in 2024.
However, he will be 30 when next year starts, and he finished his 2023 season with five straight games under 100 yards. (From September to November, Hill didn’t have any games back-to-back under 100 yards.)
Hill was hurt on and off over the final weeks of the year, which explains the dip in production, but he is the oldest of the bunch (among 1.01 contenders), and that’s why he’s my least favorite for the top spot. But it would be foolish to pretend like he doesn’t have a case.
The Verdict: Who Should be the First Overall Pick in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts?
Christian McCaffrey. Again. (Again.)
He’s still just the best. He does not miss for your fantasy team, and when he hits, he hits as big as any of these elite WRs. He’s the ideal high-floor, high-ceiling combo. There’s no reason to overthink it.
Jefferson, Lamb and Hill would be my next three choices, in that order.
