MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Once the 2021 season ended, fantasy analysts shifted their focus to 2022, looking for any possible edge over the rest of the field. Plenty of things change over the long NFL offseason, but by late August – the peak of re-draft season – some narratives feel set in stone.
If you’ve played fantasy football before, you know that there are always a handful of offseason narratives disproven within the first few weeks of the regular season. Prior to the start of last year, Ja’Marr Chase couldn’t catch, Robert Woods was the best Rams receiver to draft and Trey Sermon was poised to take over an ambiguous 49ers’ backfield.
It’s impossible to successfully predict every nuance that comes with the NFL season, but understanding that surprises will happen and being prepared for them can make you a better fantasy football player. Here, I’ll take a look at some of the most popular pseudo-consensus takes (nothing is ever fully consensus in fantasy) and walk through what could happen if the narrative doesn’t shake out the way most people expect.
What if Gabe Davis Doesn’t Break Out?
Gabe Davis has been perhaps the biggest fantasy darling this offseason. His 200-yard, four-touchdown playoff performance against Kansas City had people salivating as they fantasized about drafting him as a flex or even a bench option in 2022.
But before we unanimously vote him into the Hall of Fame, we should consider what happens in Buffalo if Davis isn’t the second-coming. If his below-average 1.54 yards per route run and 98th-ranked 0.175 targets per route run are more indicative of his future than his otherworldly playoff game, who steps up and breaks out in Buffalo? Isaiah McKenzie? Jamison Crowder? James Cook?
There are plenty of worthy pass-catching options in Buffalo to limit Davis’ upside, but the answer is Stefon Diggs. Of course, he’s not breaking out, because he did that already, but it’s possible Diggs is being overlooked as a Tier 1 receiver.
In 2021, he finished sixth in the league in targets, ninth in receptions and eighth in receiving yards, but his 63% catch rate ranked sixth lowest among receivers with at least 110 targets according to FTN’s advanced receiving stats.
With almost 200 wide receiver targets up for grabs in Buffalo, Diggs’ numbers could closely resemble 2020, when he led the league in targets, yards and receptions on a 75% completion rate. If Josh Allen does hyper-target his best player, Gabe Davis and the rest of the Bills’ receiving options might cannibalize each other and fail to live up to expectations.
What if Nobody Emerges as the Packers’ WR1?
The (seemingly) endless debate over who the No. 1 target is for Aaron Rodgers has dominated the offseason since the moment Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders. ADP says Allen Lazard is the wideout with the best chance, draft capital says it could be Christian Watson, and preseason performance says it’s obviously Romeo Doubs.
But, what if they’re all just … average? Rodgers has never had veteran receivers with this type of unimpressive track record, and rookie wideouts have never fared well with him either. It’s clear that Green Bay’s two-headed backfield is its biggest strength on offense, and both backs – Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon – are capable pass-catchers.
Our own Daniel Kelley boldly predicted that both Packers running backs finish inside the top-12 for fantasy, and I think he’s spot on. Aaron Jones finished sixth among running backs last season in first-read targets per game, meaning Rodgers looked his way first and threw him the ball quite often. That was with Adams. In his lone game without Adams, Jones hauled in seven receptions on 11 targets.
Dillon and his colossal quads can certainly punish defenders on the ground, but he quietly caught 34 passes last season on snap counts and usage rates that are lower than the ones he’ll see this year. Plus, his head coach and Hall of Fame quarterback love what he can do as a receiver.
If the Packers’ wide receivers don’t pan out, both running backs could pay massive dividends for fantasy managers.
What if Julio Jones Isn’t Washed?
One of the greatest wide receivers of all time signed a deal to catch passes from the greatest quarterback of all time, and almost everyone is fine just writing him off. His WR59 ADP suggests that the public agrees, too.
But are we sure Julio Jones isn’t a good NFL receiver anymore? Sure, injuries suck, and he’s dealt with a handful of nagging ones over the last few seasons, but it’s not a guarantee he misses half the season again. Maybe that warm Tampa weather will help him out…
He joins an offense that ran the fourth-most plays and threw the ball at a league-high 66% clip in 2021. Free agent acquisition Russell Gage missed most of August with a leg injury and Chris Godwin is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered less than nine months ago, leaving the door open for Julio to pencil in as Tom Brady’s WR2 to start the year.
If that’s the case, he doesn’t have to be what he once was. Even so, he showed there is still something in the tank last season. Despite battling injuries, he finished with a higher PFF receiving grade than Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper and his new teammate Mike Evans.
In Julio’s last two games of 2021 – Week 18 and the AFC Divisional Round – he put up 11-120-1 on 15 targets and was targeted on a whopping 29% of his routes. If zigging while everyone else zags entails drafting a free, still-capable Hall of Famer in a great offense with a great QB, sign me up. There’s a real chance Julio is fantasy relevant, but he’s an afterthought in drafts right now.
What if Rashaad Penny Never Gives up the RB1 Job in Seattle?
This one feels like it is going to either blow up in everyone else’s face or in mine, with no chance of landing anywhere in between. Besides, that’s mostly how Rashaad Penny’s career has gone anyway. When he’s healthy and getting work, he’s really good at football. He’s just always hurt.
Last season, however, he was healthy down the stretch and won a lot of people fantasy championships by racking up the most points of any running back in Weeks 13-18. It wasn’t just through a flurry of goal line touchdowns or obscene volume, either.
Penny’s six-game stretch at the end of the year was remarkable from any fantasy or real-life angle. In fact, he ranked second in the NFL in gash runs (10-plus yards), eight in the league in missed tackles forced per rush, and he led the NFL in these metrics per FTN’s Advanced Rushing Stats.
- Explosive run rate (11% of runs went for at least 15 yards)
- Percent of yards from explosive runs (52.3%)
- Yards per carry (6.29 YPC)
- Yards per carry after contact (4.4 YPC)
- Yards per carry against at least 7 box defenders (6.79 YPC)
Entering September, Penny is the consensus RB31 and going in the ninth round of fantasy drafts. Much of the concern stems from his inability to stay healthy – he’s played in just 57% of possible games for his career – but what if he does stay healthy this year? And right now, it’s actually rookie running back Kenneth Walker who’s dealing with an injury that might sideline him, not Penny.
If Penny does stay healthy and play his way into a workhorse role like he did last season, Walker could prove to be less relevant than fantasy mangers had hoped for, but it could mean Penny is a bell cow and an every-week starter throughout the year.
What if Cam Akers Doesn’t Return to Pre-Achilles Form?
For most of the last few months, the storyline has been that Cam Akers returned from an Achilles injury, saw a ton of work in the postseason and had a full offseason to get even healthier. In the last couple weeks, though, the narrative has shifted and this “what if” is looking more and more valid.
While he did make a lightning-quick recovery from an Achilles tear, Akers was simply awful during the playoffs. There were 62 players with at least one carry that registered a PFF rushing grade during the 2022 postseason. Only one was worse than Cam Akers, who played four playoff games: Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, that Ben Roethlisberger. He was the only player who played in the 2022 NFL playoffs who had a worse rushing grade than Cam Akers.
So, the last time we saw Akers, he was barely more effective on the ground than Big Ben (hyperbole, I know) and now he’s supposed to waltz into a workhorse role and we’re supposed to draft him in the first five rounds? Not exactly. Even Sean McVay has pumped the brakes on a full workload for Akers.
If Akers doesn’t receive the majority of the running back work, Darrell Henderson could prove to be one of the biggest draft-day values, especially this late in draft season. In 2021, Henderson played more than 30% of snaps in 10 games and averaged 14.35 half-PPR points in those games, making him the RB12 in points per game during those weeks. Entering September, he’s the RB41 and nearly free at the end of drafts, but he proved in 2021 that he’s a good NFL and fantasy running back when given opportunity.
