Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It would be easy for you to sit there and see this topic and think we at FTN are trying to capitalize on the SEO boost of naming a fantasy football article after a Marvel TV series. What you might not know, though, is that I’ve been doing this article for years (including here, last year), so really, Marvel is ripping me off, and I need a lawyer.
What if? What if the Dolphins hadn’t been scared off by Drew Brees’ medicals in 2006? What if Le’Veon Bell hadn’t sat out a full season? What if Adrian Peterson had broken off just one big run with the Saints in 2017 and kept Alvin Kamara as the third-stringer?
Obviously, we’re playing a little with fan fiction here, but if you don’t look back on your fantasy season and play “what if” with the lineup or roster decisions that cost you a game … well, you and I are different people. So with the NFL regular season now behind us, here’s a look at some of the key NFL What Ifs from the 2021 season.
(One note: With one exception, I don’t bother with injury What Ifs, because once you open that door you can play it forever. This isn’t that.)
(Oh, another note: This is the fantasy season. All stats are through Week 17. It’s more efficient that way, and it fits our perspective better since we’re used to Week 17, and also it keeps all you persnickety people from going “Yeah, but” about numbers over 17 games not being analogous to 16 games.)
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What If … Derrick Henry Stayed Healthy?
Here’s the one time I’m letting us get into health questions, and that’s because … man, it’s fascinating. Through seven weeks, Derrick Henry had 186.5 PPR points, almost 50 clear of D’Andre Swift’s 137.3. He added 6.8 more in the Week 8 game where he broke his foot and lost the rest of his regular season, but even his 193.3 points for the full season were enough for him to finish as solid fantasy starter (RB17).
Over eight games, even counting the one he got hurt in, Henry averaged 24.2 PPR points … or 1.7 more than Jonathan Taylor averaged this season. And Henry is a guy who famously gets better late in the season. Obviously that’s wishcasting, but man, if he stayed healthy and got better in the second half like he traditionally has? We’re talking Super Saiyan over here.
What If … the Broncos Let Melvin Gordon Go?
The Broncos have been as firmly attached to a two-man backfield committee as it’s reasonably possible to be this season — beyond Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams and the quarterbacks, the Broncos have all of 45 rushing yards this season, and 35 of those came when Gordon missed Week 13. Otherwise, it’s Damarea Crockett’s 7 yards in Week 3 and Jerry Jeudy’s 3 in Week 10.
It doesn’t seem like the team was ever that close to actually jettisoning Gordon in the offseason, but there were rumors that started approximately the minute the team drafted Williams in the second round, rumors that increased when Cam Akers tore his Achilles over the summer, with people connecting Gordon back to Los Angeles. And sure, if Gordon had left, Mike Boone would have gotten more work. But both Williams (PPR RB15) and Gordon (RB21) have been fantasy starters this season, and a full-time Javonte Williams would have been a fantasy RB1 and a league-winner.
What If … the Saints Let Taysom Hill Start All Year?
Am I bitter because I drafted Taysom Hill in a superflex draft right before they announced Jameis Winston as the starter? Maybe!
If the Saints’ goal in 2021 was to compete (which, obviously, it was), Winston was the right choice to start. But for our little fantasy game, it’s kinda different. Winston had two top-five weekly finishes in his eight starts … the same number Hill had in his first two starts of the season. Hill had two top-five finishes and a QB13 finish this year after finishing as QB4, QB11, QB8, QB11 in four starts last year — in other words, he’s started eight career games at QB and been a top-13 fantasy option in seven of them.
The four Saints quarterbacks this year totaled 310.46 fantasy points in 16 games. That would have been QB9, between Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott. Or let’s go one better: Hill has averaged 20.26 fantasy points per start in his career. Over 16 games, that’s 324.12 points, QB7 ahead of Aaron Rodgers.
All the Bears What Ifs
I made a list of potential What Ifs for this exercise, and I just kept adding Bears ones, because man, there was a path to this family being so damn interesting, and instead we got … well, not “so damn interesting.”
What If … the Bears Roll with Justin Fields from the Start?
Maybe Justin Fields turns into a star in the NFL, or maybe he doesn’t. But the Bears’ (or more specifically, Matt Nagy’s) usage and treatment of the first-round rookie was baffling. They rolled with Andy Dalton in Weeks 1-2, then were more or less forced into Fields when Dalton got hurt. And Fields was … not good. He starts Weeks 3-7 and had one game of more than 9 fantasy points, none over 14.
And, listen, I know correlation/causation, all that. I’m just saying, Week 8 was the week that Matt Nagy missed with COVID-19, and Week 8 was also Fields’ best game of the season, with 175 passing yards and a score, plus 103 rushing yards and a score that way as well. He put up 25.3 fantasy points that week and averaged 19.7 over his last four starts that he didn’t leave to injury. From “Matt Nagy has COVID-19” on, Fields was a top-10 fantasy QB every game he played beginning to end.
Of course, he got hurt. Maybe to help keep him healthy…
What If … the Bears Keep Charles Leno?
Chicago was up against the cap after the draft, and they had just drafted Teven Jenkins in the second round, so they decided to cut Charles Leno in May. He landed in Washington, where he’s played all but 6 offensive snaps this season and been at a minimum above average. Meanwhile, Jenkins didn’t even debut until Week 13 and only played put than 10 snaps in two games. Jason Peters has been better than anyone could have reasonably expected as a 39-year-old scrap-heap signing, but Leno could have boosted this line more than a few steps.
That would have required clearing money elsewhere, obviously. Luckily, there’s a candidate:
What If … the Bears Cut Jimmy Graham?
All logical people (maybe I’m editorializing? Maybe) figured Jimmy Graham would be the main cap casualty after the draft, or at least after the team signed Jesse James in July. Instead Graham remains in Chicago, where he’s played 14 games and had 21 targets on the season. The Bears’ No. 1 TE, second-year man Cole Kmet, is the TE21 despite no touchdowns on the year. If you imagine Kmet gets just the work Graham has taken — 12 receptions, 151 yards, 3 touchdowns, 47.1 PPR points — that would give him 159.5 PPR points … or just below Mike Gesicki and the TE9 n the season. The breakout was that close.
