Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to garner 14.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Raheem Mostert has garnered 61.7% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (158 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 35.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards