First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Panthers
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 18.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has been given 84.0% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (130 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Joe Mixon’s running effectiveness (3.43 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (8th percentile among RBs).
- Joe Mixon has been worse at generating extra running yardage this season, averaging 2.05 yards-after-contact vs a 3.09 rate last season.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
