Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 18.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been given 84.0% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (130 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon’s running effectiveness (3.43 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (8th percentile among RBs).
Joe Mixon has been worse at generating extra running yardage this season, averaging 2.05 yards-after-contact vs a 3.09 rate last season.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards