Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-118) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

The model projects the Titans to be the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Derrick Henry is projected by the projections to find himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs with 21.0 rush attempts.
With an outstanding record of 3.25 yards after contact (86th percentile), Derrick Henry ranks as one of the strongest RBs in the NFL this year.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (136 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 8th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Cons

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
A throwing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The leading projections forecast the Titans offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.73 seconds per play.
Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his offense’s run game this year (69.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (80.1%).
Derrick Henry’s 72.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a meaningful diminishment in his running skills over last season’s 91.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards