NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Steelers vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-118) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Titans to be the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Derrick Henry is projected by the projections to find himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs with 21.0 rush attempts.
- With an outstanding record of 3.25 yards after contact (86th percentile), Derrick Henry ranks as one of the strongest RBs in the NFL this year.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (136 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 8th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans offense to be the 5th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.73 seconds per play.
- Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his offense’s run game this year (69.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (80.1%).
- Derrick Henry’s 72.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a meaningful diminishment in his running skills over last season’s 91.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
