Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-120) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 58.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 13.4 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
- David Montgomery has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
- Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 100 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
