Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 17.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has earned 73.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has run for significantly fewer yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards