Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).

Pros

The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
The projections expect Austin Ekeler to garner 15.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
This year, the poor Jets run defense has yielded a staggering 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the worst in the league.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year in run support.
Austin Ekeler’s ground efficiency has declined this season, notching just 3.70 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 figure last season.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, New York’s unit has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 8th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards