Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week’s game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected by the projection model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
- The projections expect Austin Ekeler to garner 15.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- This year, the poor Jets run defense has yielded a staggering 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the worst in the league.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year in run support.
- Austin Ekeler’s ground efficiency has declined this season, notching just 3.70 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 figure last season.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, New York’s unit has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 8th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
