UFC Sao Paulo MMA Betting Odds (11/4)

The UFC takes over São Paulo, Brazil, this weekend, which gives the fight fans in the States a 6 p.m. ET start time and a main event packed with dynamite. Derrick Lewis makes the trip to Brazil after cashing in a flying knee in his last fight. He takes on rising star Jailton Almeida, who finds himself in a main event spot once again after beating Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a main event spot his last time out.

The main card also features brothers Gabriel Bonfim and Ismael Bonfim out of Brazil, who are on the rise and looking to prove why they are future contenders for the belt. Gabriel is perfect in the UFC octagon, while his older brother Ismael looks to bounce back after his first setback in the UFC octagon his last time out against Benoit St. Denis. The main card also features a pair of grappling aces when the fighting nerds Caio Borralho takes on Abus Magomedov and Jiujitsu Legend Rodolfo Viera toes the line against Armen Petrosyan.

There are 13 fights on the card this weekend. Below, I’ve broken down my favorite fights from the main card and have given you guys the best bets for each. Let’s cash. 

All odds are per BetMGM.

Almeida vs. Lewis Odds

Jailton Almeida -500, Derrick Lewis +385

After impressing the brass in his first main event spot, Almeida is set to headline another card. This time, it’s on home soil against the division’s scariest puncher in Lewis. With five fights and five finishes in the UFC, Almeida has yet to venture past the second round. His formula is simple: Get the fight to the ground and dominate. Almeida is athletic, built like a tank and moves like a featherweight. With 63% of his wins coming by submission, Almeida doesn’t spend much time striking but has the power to do damage with his hands. Still, the damage is always done on the ground, whether by ground and pound or submission, and I can’t see him taking another path to victory in this match-up. In terms of height and reach, Lewis and Almeida are equal. Almeida averages 3.81 significant strikes landed compared to Lewis, who averages 2.60 significant strikes. Almeida also absorbs nearly zero damage, indicating that each of his opponents has had a literal puncher’s chance before they drown underneath Almeida’s pressure. If Lewis ever evolved as an athlete, he perhaps could’ve been champion a long time ago, but the blueprint to beat him is known and outside of a flying knee or landing a knockout punch. Lewis is going to succumb to the pressure eventually. He averages a 52% takedown defense, and Almeida averages nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes. The pick is for Almeida to get the fight to the ground and finish the contest early in the first or second round. 

Bet: Jailton Almeida by submission in Round 1 +150 | Almeida by submission or decision -140 

G. Bonfim vs. Dalby Odds

Gabriel Bonfim -600, Nicholas Dalby +450

The co-main event features another Brazilian ace, as Bonfim makes his third official appearance in the octagon, this time on home soil. There’s no doubt Bonfim is accustomed to fighting in front of his fans, but this time, he gets to do it on the biggest stage alongside his brother, who kicks off the main card. He is riding a three-fight win streak in the UFC, dating back to his Contender Series fight in 2022. Bonfim has not only dominated, but he’s finished fighters who previously had never been submitted or lost.

Dalby steps in to challenge Bonfim and prove he is the young Brazilians’ most challenging test to date. It’s a fun fight because Bonfim has yet to go to the scorecard in 15 professional fights, and Dalby, outside of a no-contest loss in 2019, has never been finished. He has lost, but he has never been submitted or knocked out. Dalby’s best quality is his durability and ability to drag his opponents into deep waters where only he can swim. Bonfim has a simple yet effective game plan. He uses his boxing background to soften up his opponents and then finishes fights on the ground through ground and pound or submission. With 80% of wins coming by submission, it’s clear the path of least resistance is usually on the ground for Bonfim. The other 20% of finishes indicate Bonfim also has the knockout power to do damage if his opponent can defend submission attempts.

Dalby brings a well-rounded game to the octagon. He averages 14 minutes of fight time, nearly four significant strikes landed per minute and attempts 1.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. The problem with his game is that he absorbs 3.39 significant strikes, defends 62% of takedowns, and will be at a height and reach disadvantage in this fight. Still, his biggest problem is that he tends to fight from behind. Anytime you drag your opponents into deep waters, it usually indicates that you had to withstand a beating or onslaught of grappling until your opponent gassed out. It could also mean Dalby dominated but couldn’t find the finish, but that’s usually not true for Dalby. Against Claudio Silva, Dalby was dominated for almost six minutes on the ground, and if it wasn’t for Silva rushing his sub attempts and running out of gas, I’m convinced that Dalby would’ve been finished. Anything can happen in a fight, but I expect Bonfim to not only be fueled by his hometown crowd but also by the fact that his brother is also on the main card. Dalby doesn’t present enough challenges for Bonfim, and even if he keeps the fight standing, the better striking and higher volume come from the Bonfim side. 

Bet: Bonfim/Dalby under 1.5 rounds -142 | Bonfim by submission +125 

Borralho vs. Magomedov Odds

Caio Borralho -300, Abusupiyan Magomedov +240

The fighting nerd Borralho returns to the octagon in his sixth official UFC contest, dating back to his win on the Contender Series in 2021. Since his debut, Borralho has displayed confidence, strength and a mind for the fight game way beyond his years. At 30 years old and 4-0 in the UFC, Borralho has been challenged so far and has taken out fighters who are world-class strikers and grapplers — each time showing a new wrinkle in his arsenal and winning in dominating fashion. His bread and butter is jiujitsu, and his stand-up is serviceable, but he leaves his chin in the air sometimes, which could lead to trouble. Borralho fights with arrogance, almost willing to take a shot or two before taking the fight to the ground and drowning his opponents. He doesn’t have many finishes so far in the UFC, but that speaks to the level of competition he’s fought. Borralho averages nearly 12 minutes of fight time, 2.59 significant strikes landed per minute and attempts 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. The takedown attempts could probably be higher, but Borralho doesn’t let many of his opponents back up after the initial takedown, landing nearly 70% of his takedown attempts.

His opponent, Magomedov, has a 0% takedown defense and attempts 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, but nearly triples the striking volume of Borralho and is considered a world-class striker. His best quality is his exceptional kickboxing, but in his last fight against middleweight champ Sean Strickland, he fell off a cliff after the first round and showed a severe problem with his gas tank. I can only assume that a grappling clinic from Borralho will test that gas tank again and limit any volume. Borralho is many things, but his best quality is knowing how to win. He is constantly hunting for the finish effectively and efficiently, and this weekend, I expect him to continue his win streak and send Magomedov to the wrestling room. Borralho doesn’t need to stand and bang, and even though Magomedov may defend the first takedown, he will eventually get taken down and have to fight from behind. 

Bet: Caio Borralho by KO/TKO or submission +110 | Borralho/Magomedov under 2.5 rounds -145 

Veira vs. Petrosyan Odds 

Rodolfo Viera -110, Armen Petrosyan -110

A classic grappler vs. striker matchup is on the menu when Viera takes on Romanian kickboxer Petrosyan. When Viera signed with the promotion in 2019, he instantly became one of the best grapplers in the UFC, let alone the middleweight division. Currently 4-2 in the UFC with all wins by submission, Viera’s most significant issue has been his gas tank and learning to manage it. In his only losses, he couldn’t find the submissions and eventually let his opponents turn the tide and win the fight. If Viera had a better gas tank, he could utilize his grappling to control positions and not only go sub-hunting until he falls off the position or his opponent stands up. Viera has also mentioned problems with his mental strength in fights once things don’t go his way. Indicating that once his gas tank goes south, his will to win goes with it. Still, Viera is a living legend in the jiujitsu world, and his grappling is effective at any moment of the fight. Viera doesn’t need Petrosyan to make many mistakes for him to capitalize and find a submission.

Petrosyan is a world-class kickboxer who blends kicks and punches well. His Achilles heel comes in his takedown defense, as he only defends 33% of takedowns coming his way. One can only assume that he’s been working on it for this camp. Still, with how good Petrosyan strikes, I expect Viera to grapple early, which could be an excellent live betting spot for Petrosyan if he makes it out of the first round. Still, Viera did improve his gas tank against Chris Curtis as he went three rounds with the crafty striker; he also showed an improvement in his stand-up against Cody Brundage utilizing a good jab. That’s why, from a betting perspective, I will back the fighter who can make this an MMA fight and not be one-dimensional. Petrosyan may be able to stop the takedowns outside of the first round, but I expect him to be taken down early and often, and if he can’t tire Viera, he will be fighting from behind and under a lot of pressure from Viera. 

Bet: Rodolfo Viera by submission or decision +105 | Viera ML + over 1.5 rounds +225 

I. Bonfim vs. Pichel Odds

Ismael Bonfim -525, Vinc Pichel +380

Vinc Pichel has been in the UFC for over 10 years, and his biggest opponent during his tenure has been injuries. His injuries have limited his cage time to fighting 1-2x a year, with his biggest layoff being from 2014 to 2017. Still, Pichel is 7-3 overall in the UFC and has wins over notable fighters like Roosevelt Roberts, Jim Miller and Austin Hubbard, but at 41 years old, his age could be a new hurdle to overcome. Pichel is tough to beat and even harder to finish. “From Hell” fights with aggression and good boxing and averages three takedowns per 15 minutes. His wrestling is something he could utilize in this fight, considering Ismael Bonfim seemed to have an issue with Benoit St Denis, who, like Pichel, is an aggressive wrestler. But the difference between St. Denis and Pichel is that St. Denis is 14 years younger and has a better gas tank.

Ismael Bonfim is not as exciting or big as his younger brother Gabriel, but he’s equally well-rounded and has the tools to win this fight. Bonfim averages 4.91 significant strikes landed per minute, defends 76% of strikes coming his way, and, most importantly, defends 81% of takedowns. Pichel may land three takedowns per 15 minutes, but he’s only successful 54% of the time and barely defends any takedowns. Bonfim doesn’t utilize much grappling in his fights, as 47% of his wins are by knockout, but he does have wins by submission, and he trains with a good camp capable of patching up any mistakes made in his last fight. The pick is for Bonfim to defend the takedowns and win the stand-up exchanges, landing enough significant damage to find a finish late or win on the scorecards. It’s a clean sweep for the Bonfim Brothers in Brazil this weekend. 

Bet: Ismael Bonfim by KO/TKO or submission -115