MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
- The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to garner 13.3 carries in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
- The model projects Aaron Jones to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack in this game (48.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (38.2% in games he has played).
- As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the effect it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.
Cons
- The Packers have been the 9th-least run-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.5% run rate.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
- Aaron Jones’s 29.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season marks a noteworthy reduction in his rushing talent over last season’s 64.0 rate.
- Aaron Jones’s running efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
