Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to garner 13.3 carries in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The model projects Aaron Jones to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack in this game (48.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (38.2% in games he has played).
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the effect it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.

Cons

The Packers have been the 9th-least run-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.5% run rate.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
Aaron Jones’s 29.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season marks a noteworthy reduction in his rushing talent over last season’s 64.0 rate.
Aaron Jones’s running efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 4.03 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards