Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-135) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this season (33.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
- Tyreek Hill has totaled many more air yards this year (135.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- Tyreek Hill has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
