Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (+104) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 5.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- T.J. Hockenson has accrued a colossal 48.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 62.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
