Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 71.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 10.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- Stefon Diggs has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (110.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The New York Jets defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) versus wide receivers this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.2%) vs. WRs this year (63.2%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards
94
Receiving Yards
