Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup is definitely one of the tougher primetime games to bet on this season, and that’s coming from someone who survived a Patriots/Bears week. I’m not sure who’s decided to put the Texans on primetime here, but they have a brutal matchup against the only remaining undefeated team. The Eagles are currently sitting at 7-0 and are very well balanced on both sides of the ball.
While A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Hurts are huge names, they are working behind the clear No. 1 offensive line as well. The Eagles have a nice matchup in the trenches here, and the Texans will really struggle to contain them on offense then slow them down on defense. So here is my bet for this week’s Thursday game.
Eagles Defensive Touchdown
+410, FanDuel Sportsbook
One of the biggest problems with this game is the lack of faith in the Texans on offense. They especially are struggling at receiver, with Nico Collins injured and Brandin Cooks seemingly not on good terms with the team. Dameon Pierce and the run game have really been the sole positive of this offense this season, but they will most likely be put in a situation where they need to throw the ball. Putting Davis Mills in a situation where he needs to throw the ball a lot seems like a very solid strategy in beating the Texans. That brings us into our longshot play for this game, Eagles defensive touchdown at +410 on FanDuel Sportsbook. This prop is normally better odds, but I think the books understand the Davis Mills experience could be a real rollercoaster.
I was initially looking at some Mills interceptions props after he has thrown picks in back-to-back games, but the price wasn’t great there. As more props become available from the defensive side, I think there will be some good plus-money options for the Eagles. They are coming into this game with one of the best secondaries in the nation, with the Darius Slay/James Bradberry/C.J. Gardner-Johnson combination giving opposing quarterbacks fits. Six of the seven quarterbacks that have faced the Eagles have thrown interceptions, and Mills is likely to turn the ball over based on the odds. It’s also likely Houston is not working with great field position for most of this game, giving the defense an easier shot at reaching the endzone. I have a hard time believing the Texans will keep this one close, let’s take advantage of Davis Mills making a mistake here.
