Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Woods from EV Insight

Robert WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-115/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-114) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to total 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
Robert Woods has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 20.8% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Robert Woods’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 66.1% to 71.5%.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
Robert Woods has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards